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  #1  
Old 08-10-2005, 12:33 AM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Variance for Variance sake?

Empire 5K
fairly average table, meaning very donky, but they error more on the side of calling too much, so no great chip accumulation opps so far.

25/50 level, I have 1100, average is 2100 or so, about 90 left, 30 pay, but only FT matters.

AQs in BB
Folded to passive button who limps, SB who has a gazillion chips and has shown aggression once in last 45 minutes, and it was with top set. This is the 1st time he has raised PF, he has however called down with mid pair and 2 over cards.

He makes it 150. 250 in pot. I had notes on SB as being uber-tight PF, so I think AJ+, 88+ looks about right.

Stop and go: probably going to take a scary flop for him to fold

Play it out: I do have position, and enough chips to have post flop F.E.on the right board

Push: most likely a slight -CEV play, but my best chance to double up.

I pushed, thinking that I think that having 20x once is a good bit better than having 10x twice at the next level. Any thoughts?
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  #2  
Old 08-10-2005, 01:03 AM
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Default Re: Variance for Variance sake?

whats up man. I understand your thinking about doubling up, but I kind of hate your line based on everything that you wrote and your read on the player. I kinda think I call and then play it from there. But what do I know, as I am grinding out $5 SNGs to try and pay you back that money.
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Old 08-10-2005, 01:20 AM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: Variance for Variance sake?

[ QUOTE ]
whats up man. I understand your thinking about doubling up, but I kind of hate your line based on everything that you wrote and your read on the player. I kinda think I call and then play it from there. But what do I know, as I am grinding out $5 SNGs to try and pay you back that money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats f-ed up. You think Worm would contradict Mike on a message board?

So what line do you take? and why?

p.s. you better get money by Friday, so I can win it all at Fran;s house
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Old 08-10-2005, 01:33 AM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
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Default Re: Variance for Variance sake?

Hero calls and plays the hand 3 ways.

The raise is designed for button, and I think its too small to get him to fold. So villain is ok with playing the hand OOP ATF. I think the lower midpairs are probably out. I think the range is tighter, but you are still only 45% against the range you gave (88++, aj++) so I wouldn't raise. (against a normal player I'd raise to T450, and move in on the flop). You're going to need to improve here to win the hand, so I wouldn't worry about button. I'd go for the flush! [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
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Old 08-10-2005, 01:44 AM
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Default Re: Variance for Variance sake?

lol i though my post was clear that I liked to call here and then play from the flop, unless you are convinced that you absolutely need to double in this exact spot. I play different than you, and based on your read, this ain't that spot for me. Love to call here and play from there.

whats going on at Fran's and why have I not been told?!?!?!?!?!?
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  #6  
Old 08-10-2005, 01:47 AM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Default Re: Variance for Variance sake?

At Empire, I think you have better spots than this. For the second thread in a row, while a bit weak, see a flop in position (although I'd push AK and JJ here.)
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  #7  
Old 08-10-2005, 06:16 AM
nath nath is offline
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Default Re: Variance for Variance sake?

I like the push, but I also like trying to double up or go home when I'm at about half the average stack.
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  #8  
Old 08-10-2005, 08:23 AM
SoBeDude SoBeDude is offline
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Default Re: Variance for Variance sake?

SB who has a gazillion chips and has shown aggression once in last 45 minutes, and it was with top set.

This is the 1st time he has raised PF

He makes it 150. 250 in pot. I had notes on SB as being uber-tight PF, so I think AJ+, 88+ looks about right.

Now if I had typed all that, and then jammed with AQ, what would you say to me?

Um, if there was every a right time for a short stack to dump AQ, I think this is a textbook example. You're getting crushed by his range of hands. And honestly, his range is probably tighter than you indicated.

dumpo the cheese and move on.

-Scott
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  #9  
Old 08-10-2005, 08:24 AM
SoBeDude SoBeDude is offline
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Default Re: Variance for Variance sake?

Oh it was sooted. I missed that.

I think I might call with the flush, but I'm going to hate myself if I flop an A and he shows me AK, or I flop a K and he shows me AA or some other such crap.

-Scott
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  #10  
Old 08-10-2005, 12:07 PM
Pat Southern Pat Southern is offline
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Default Re: Variance for Variance sake?

[ QUOTE ]
Thats f-ed up. You think Worm would contradict Mike on a message board?


[/ QUOTE ]

Last time I checked Mike McD doesn't play in the empire $5000 guaranteed [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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