Should i fold this?

[TwistedEcho]

Ok so i'm having problems using the coverter.. i think im missing something - everytime i enter an absolute hand history into it, it doesn't process it correctly. Any ideas?

Ok onto the hand, $5 multi, about 260 entrants, down to 150 or so. About an hour into play, and i've just moved onto this table. Not played a hand for about an orbit, and find myself in the big blind with 35bbs.

Stage #132252124: Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit $50 [ 2005-06-02 01:28:06 ]
*** ANTE [dealer 2] ***
Seat 3 - DAKOTA64 $1090 in chips
Seat 4 - EDDIE12345 $3510 in chips
Seat 5 - NICKDANGER $5905 in chips
Seat 6 - DIRTRACING73 $2652.50 in chips
Seat 7 - MLJ_PLAYER $10227.50 in chips
Seat 8 - TLWOOD $1070 in chips
Seat 9 - CMORENUTZ $3110 in chips
Seat 1 - MAVERICBK $3890 in chips
Seat 2 - 84ROADSTER $8170 in chips
DAKOTA64 - Post small blind $50
EDDIE12345 - Post big blind $100
EDDIE12345 - Pocket [4h,6s]
NICKDANGER - Calls $100
DIRTRACING73 - Folds
MLJ_PLAYER - Calls $100
TLWOOD - Calls $100
CMORENUTZ - Folds
MAVERICBK - Calls $100
84ROADSTER - Calls $100
DAKOTA64 - Calls $50
EDDIE12345 - Checks
*** FLOP [6c,8c,4s] ***
DAKOTA64 - Checks
HERO - Bets $500
NICKDANGER - Raises $500 to $2700
MLJ_PLAYER - Folds
TLWOOD - Folds
MAVERICBK - Folds
84ROADSTER - Folds
DAKOTA64 - Folds
HERO ????????


If i'd had less chips, this is easier, but do i really want to risk everything here when 88 is possible? I also thought he might have JJ/TT possibly, maybe even an UTG limp with AA which didn't have the chance to reraise preflop. Also remember this is a $5, so lots of people overplay bad cards, a flush draw possibly does this, as might A8 - so basically what im asking is do i risk my tournament here, or should i fold and wait for a better spot?

[transmitt]

you would think he wouldn't let you off the hook by betting a set so heavily, unless he was trying to chase you off the draw. Looks like 1:6-1 on the call? I think I call and hope for JJ from him.

[nightlyraver]

Really depends on my read of villian. You showed considerable strength in a large, multiway pot. If villian did have a set, why would he bet so big? Some players do this with very strong hands hoping for a call, but it's not that common - that's where the "read" part comes in. I would think that he would either wait to raise or raise a more appropriate amount if he really had a set - at least a 70% favorite over anything you could possibly bet here except a made straight. The only time that a push is a good move if he has a set is if you have exactly 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in which case he is only a 60% favorite to win and would want to shut you out if possible. I can't really produce numbers here, but from my experience this is an easy call and +EV. I've made and witnessed similar call in the past and almost always was shown TPTK or an overpair - and you're about a 70% favorite over both.

Another factor to consider is that it's more likely that a tricky player would limp UTG w/ AA than with 88 and then push this flop. My guess is that your 70% to double up, giving yourself a strong change at the final table. Even if we factor in a 10% chance that he's doing this move with pocket eights, it's still a good call.

[durron597]

I really like check-raising allin in this spot. For some reason that seems to do well for me with two pair.

[suited_ace]

I fold here, but I think the problem is not going for a check-raise. With so many players in this thing, someone's gonna bet and *then* you can put in a good raise.

This guy could be raising you with a *lot* of hands - TPTK, overpairs, straight and/or flush draws - but I don't think he would re-raise you without a hand that has you beat.

[Iconoclastic]

If you're not willing to play two pair for all your chips (and I don't think I would) then check-fold the Flop.

[DVC Calif]

Is this an RGP test of how we would play "Arlo"? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

My read is that Villain limped red aces UTG, hoping for a LP raiser to punish. Instead, he got 6 more players limping into the flop. With your bet, there's now t1200 in the pot with a dangerour looking board (club draw and small staright draw). He's figures t1200 is good enough for him and reraises another t1500 (t2700) to take it down now.

My play would be to push and hope the board doesn't pair. This would be a great time to double up and to put the player on your left on tilt. Look for him to "pay you back", so play your next few hands carefully.

The end.