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  #21  
Old 05-25-2005, 07:44 AM
PrayingMantis PrayingMantis is offline
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Default Re: Small edge w/ AKo?

[ QUOTE ]
And I don't really see aj,TT,jj miniraising in late position either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? there are certain (bad) players who will mini-raise with a wide variety of hands, especially if it's folded to them on LP. AJ, TT, JJ are certainly in that range. I agree that some marginal aces might not be in that range, however, there are certainly some players (and I thnk CO is one of them) who can miniraise any pair here (not necessarily reraising all-in with it, tho).
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  #22  
Old 05-25-2005, 07:54 AM
PrayingMantis PrayingMantis is offline
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Default Re: Small edge w/ AKo?

[ QUOTE ]
Would this be a better spot to re-raise and just pick up chips?

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, that for re-raise and just pick up chips you can use 52o. I had a feeling that in this particular situation, you gain maximum value for AKo by trapping these players PF, and yes, playing a big "bust or 2.5xup" pot (there's also a chance you'll be left with half your stack).

After the hand I had second thoughts about it, but the math does show it is definitely a clear +CEV spot, and since it's still relatively early in the game, you should have very good reasons to play it in a less riskier way only to survive it, IMO.
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  #23  
Old 05-25-2005, 07:56 AM
Sluss Sluss is offline
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Default Re: Small edge w/ AKo?

[ QUOTE ]
AJ, TT, JJ are certainly in that range.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the range I thought of from your original description of CO. That good hand that wouldn't be that strong in a three way pot. Even adding in 99 and A10 soooted.
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  #24  
Old 05-25-2005, 08:01 AM
Sluss Sluss is offline
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Default Re: Small edge w/ AKo?

Which is why I'm almost unhappy to see AK sometimes in this spot. I'd prefer to see it mid-way through the tourney when I have just raised back to back pots on steals. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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  #25  
Old 05-25-2005, 08:55 AM
fnord_too fnord_too is offline
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Default Re: Small edge w/ AKo?

Before I read the other replies, I think this is an easy call. I think you have more than 33% equity, so I put in some ranges in poker stove and it came up with 35%. That is a bit misleading though, since you are really concerned about CO. I think against CO you probably have close to 50% equity, with the times he shows up with AQ and maybe AJ making up some of the ground you lose on all the times you are against a pair. Also, there is a significant chance you can beat the CO and lose to the sb, which leaves you almost exactly where you are when you face the all in call (T20 less if my mental math is correct).

At any rate, I think this is an easy call since I think you are in a +Chip EV situation early in the tourney for all your chips. That is just a situation I have come to love, if you win you are in great shape if you lose, oh well. In the long run I think making calls like this are significantly +Cashing EV.
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  #26  
Old 05-25-2005, 12:13 PM
Che Che is offline
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Default Re: Small edge w/ AKo?

[ QUOTE ]
One minor thing that I think is missing in your calculation (and that is actually quite complicated to handle), is my equity in the side-pot considering SB might hold one of my outs (A or K).

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that PM and the CO will each win the side pot in approximately the same proportions that they win the main pot.

Thus, I estimate side pot equity as:

39.8688/(39.8688+33.2912)=.5450

This is quite a bit lower than the 59.5% that does not consider the third hand taking outs from AK so it may have a meaningful impact on the total EV of the hand. I'll let others elaborate... [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Later,
Che
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