Overpair vs. top card pairing

[karlson]

Here's a 10-20 hand I observed my friend play the other day. The game is usually very good, but the opponent on this particular hand is unknown. It's the first hand of the game.

Hero raises first in from MP with KsKc. Button calls, blinds fold.

Flop: Qd 9h 5s

Hero checks, button bets, raise, 3-bet, call.

Turn: Qc

Hero checks and folds to a bet.

This should be a standard situation. My first thought was that his play was not very good at all, but now I am no longer convinced that my intuition is correct.

Thoughts?

Hmm. Tricky one. What hands will a typical player three-bet from the button on a flop like this, after being faced with a check-raise from a pre-flop raisor?

I cannot imagne it being a set, even top two should usually wait to pop the turn. However, the worst and some of the very best players will possibly three-bet these hands on the flop. The very best players will do this because they correctly now read the opponent for an overpair or AQ, and expect further action or at least being called down.

However, the most likely three-bet hands on a flop like this is AQ, KQ and JT in my opinion. KQ is unlikely for obvious reasons, AQ probably shouldn't three-bet this flop, and that leaves JT, which many would three-bet on this rainbow flop, having failed at the original pick-up the pot bet (which should be followed-up with with a turn bet - however, after being check-raised, a three-bet should be made purely for the purpose of taking a free card on the turn).

What counts against JT is the fact that it's rarely played on the button for a raise except if suited and also, few have the large balls to go at it again with the bluff once the Queens pair on the turn (as I said, a free card should be taken here, although the Queens pairing could be an exception).

I like the fact that the JT draw is drawing very slim against KK here, and with two outs to at least two bets on the river.

Also, in more aggressive games, a flop three-bet could indicate a mediocre hand trying to trick it's way into a fairly cheap passage to a showdown. Hands that fall into this category are poor Queens, but also Nines and pocket pairs.

At the end of the day, I just feel that our Hero is getting too little information by checking the turn to fold for a bet behind. That bet will come very often, be it a Queen or not.

lars