I fold JJ pf

[istewart]

bozlax, Party $.5/1 is filled with horrible players but they are INCREDIBLY PASSIVE horrible players that raise 5% of their hands.

I don't see why everyone thinks the impled odds are enormous either. You're getting 10.5:4 immediate, which probably averages out to around 13:4 once the preflop action ends. You need to make up ~ (40-13) = 27 SBs = 13.5BBs postflop just to break even, which is not that easy to do.

For people saying "it's easy to play, just flop a set or fold" -- this is not true for the majority of you and you know it. Oftentimes you are paying bets here so you can lose money postflop.

[istewart]

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It's easy to get away from, that's what is so beautiful about this situation. We're only playing for the set or we muck.


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Easy if the flop comes AQ5, but what about 832 rainbow, are you folding to a bet?

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No. We'd be getting odds on the flop for our set.

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And then are you going to fold on a turn blank for one more bet? And then on the river again?

[bozlax]

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bozlax, Party $.5/1 is filled with horrible players but they are INCREDIBLY PASSIVE horrible players that raise 5% of their hands.

I don't see why everyone thinks the impled odds are enormous either. You're getting 10.5:4 immediate, which probably averages out to around 13:4 once the preflop action ends. You need to make up ~ (40-13) = 27 SBs = 13.5BBs postflop just to break even, which is not that easy to do.

For people saying "it's easy to play, just flop a set or fold" -- this is not true for the majority of you and you know it. Oftentimes you are paying bets here so you can lose money postflop.

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Three good points. In response:

To the first, we already know that UTG is TAG, so not incredibly passive. My default read on the Party .5/1 player is that he's equally likely to be unnecessarily aggressive or ridiculously passive, so that leaves me with one out of three opponents that is "likely" to have a premium hand better than mine.

To the second, if you're getting dead money from 2 of the 3 opponents, that improves your odds significantly.

And, to the third, all I can say is that if an overcard flops without my set card, I'll drop this to aggression like it burned me. If an overcard falls with my set card, I'll play cautiously, but may well end up losing a lot. C'est la poker.

[GrunchCan]

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bozlax, Party $.5/1 is filled with horrible players but they are INCREDIBLY PASSIVE horrible players that raise 5% of their hands.

I don't see why everyone thinks the impled odds are enormous either. You're getting 10.5:4 immediate, which probably averages out to around 13:4 once the preflop action ends. You need to make up ~ (40-13) = 27 SBs = 13.5BBs postflop just to break even, which is not that easy to do.

For people saying "it's easy to play, just flop a set or fold" -- this is not true for the majority of you and you know it. Oftentimes you are paying bets here so you can lose money postflop.

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I agree in principle with everything that istewart said here.

[Guthrie]

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Very standard.

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Folding or losing his 2+2 card?

[droolie]

This was a 2/4 party game. The tables have all been playing aggressively lately. (Rarely does an EP limp go unraised.) The TAG's range can be reasonly small though as he was a 7% pf raiser.

My thinking at the time was that I was almost certainly behind a higher pocket pair and posibbly behind two or even three pocket pairs which meant I would have to hit my J on the flop and have no overcards on the board. It simply wasn't worth 4SB's to try to hit that.

It felt so weird to fold JJ on the button as I think it's the first time I've ever done that. I've recently been capping with QQ and JJ and three-betting with TT, 99, 88 and 77 and had terrible results. I don't think these plays are wrong but I wind up paying up the ass for a hand that has me drawing thin.

As far as what would I do if I had QQ? I think I fold it if I have any reads at all that the capper and 3-bettor are sane. Otherwise I call and hope for the set with no overcards.

[lautzutao]

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bozlax, Party $.5/1 is filled with horrible players but they are INCREDIBLY PASSIVE horrible players that raise 5% of their hands.

I don't see why everyone thinks the impled odds are enormous either. You're getting 10.5:4 immediate, which probably averages out to around 13:4 once the preflop action ends. You need to make up ~ (40-13) = 27 SBs = 13.5BBs postflop just to break even, which is not that easy to do.

For people saying "it's easy to play, just flop a set or fold" -- this is not true for the majority of you and you know it. Oftentimes you are paying bets here so you can lose money postflop.

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I understand what you're saying, and Paxo said the same thing. But isn't it possible that someone calls behind us? We could easily be getting 17-20:4(blinds calling...) if the table's loose enough.

I have no problem folding this unimproved if we don't have the odds to draw for our set on the turn. At least I think I could [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] I honestly couldn't tell ya because I've never had this situation where I thought I could potentially be up against 3 of these hands: QQ KK AA AK.

And who says we AREN'T ahead here like bozlax stated? I'm not saying it's likely, but it's not improbable. And we aren't risking our entire stack to find out.

[GrunchCan]

I think QQ and JJ are virtually the same hand in this spot. The EV of your situation changes when the pair is KK, or maybe if you have a different hand entirely.

[lautzutao]

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UTG raises (TAG), UTG+1 3-bets (unknown), UTG+2 caps(unknown, folded to me on the button and I fold.

Do I lose my 2+2 card for that?

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This edit changes things for me. Hells yeah I call this on the button. We're guaranteed to act last and we possibly having the blinds coming along for the ride.

[bozlax]

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To the first, we already know that UTG is TAG, so not incredibly passive. My default read on the Party .5/1 player is that he's equally likely to be unnecessarily aggressive or ridiculously passive, so that leaves me with one out of three opponents that is "likely" to have a premium hand better than mine.

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I can't believe that nobody's going to challenge this. I think it's right...I just can't believe there's going to be zero discussion of it.

I've also been driving around and realized that I'm not comfortable with the 40 bets number. In the first place, it's only 34, since you're about 8.5:1 to hit your set on the flop, right? Second, that only applies if you're folding to any number of bets on the flop if you don't hit your set. Hypothetically:

Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, four to the flop for 16.5SB and you've lost your TAG.

Flop: 922r.
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero ?

Now if you're behind you only have to make up 2BB if you hit on the turn, and it's ever more likely that you're getting dead money from at least one of BB and UTG+2.

I remember being (correctly) hammered in this forum for being scared to 3-bet JJ preflop. If I'm not guaranteed position, here (say I open-raise in MP1 and it's 3-bet by LP, capped by Button, SB folds and BB calls) I think it's an easier bail out, but with position I think we have to see the flop.