Capping as an Escape Route

naphand · #1 12-13-2005, 11:17 AM

Lots of questions about this hand, not least of which is the PFR.

After about 100+ hands CO is V$IP60/PFR25 and has been auto-stealing when folded to the in the CO/Button/SB. Post-flop he will run bluffs at paired boards, raise 2nd-pair or CR raggy boards to the PFR etc. but will slow down on the big streets if played back at.

BB appears to be an uber-fish who plays any 2 cards from the blinds for multiple bets, regularly cold-calls outside the blinds with sooted, AAAP, any connectors, any broadway etc. and will call down any piece of the board post-flop. His figures are V$IP60-70/PFR~5 after about 50 hands.

$5/$10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Naphand is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO (LAG) raises, Naphand 3-bets, 1 fold, BB (UberFish) calls, CO (LAG) calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UberFish bets, LAG calls, Naphand raises, UberFish calls, LAG 3-bets, Naphand [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Given the high probability of BB calling who advocates just calling the LAG PFR? K9s is pretty borderline for a 3-bet, though against this player is likely to be the best hand.

Post-flop UberFish donking is a bit surprising so he must have something, raise is OK I think. LAG makes a wierd play.

Should I call and re-evaluate the Turn? Who advocates capping here and folding to a raise on the Turn? Flat calling makes the Turn play much tougher IMO.

What is the best plan for making use of my Button here? I have to admit to being f.confused at this point.

jskills · #2 12-13-2005, 11:31 AM

I can't comment on PF, since I still have to fold this to a LAG. K9s is not a strong enough hand to isolate for my liking. K9s is more of a hand I'd like to get into a multi-way pot with in late position.

On the flop, you have to ask yourself one question, do you have the best hand? If so, then call and turn raise would seem best, especially if this were HU.

The uberfish cold calling the whole way is a bit disturbing though. Will a flop cap make him fold? Ideally, you'd like to see him go away, as your top pair is vulnerable here.

So my preference here is to cap the flop. If he leads the turn, call down. If not, obviously keep the pressure on.

This is LAG specific advice of course. I would not play it this way against a standard opponent.

Spartan1983 · #3 12-13-2005, 11:34 AM

I call and re-evaluate. If I don't improve, I might throw in 1 more raise, but I would hate to be 3 bet and shown 7 8 by 1 or both of them.

#4 12-13-2005, 01:58 PM

You definitely have the odds to call and with about 6 outs, I'd probably cap it.

On the turn, if you're UI, then I might look closer at a fold. Given your read, I'd bet any card on the turn, but fold to a raise, I guess.

Scotch78 · #5 12-13-2005, 02:34 PM

With a calling station in the BB, 3-betting would be my last option pre-flop, and cold-calling would be second. My 3-betting range might be AT+, A8s+, KJ+, KTs+, and 77+. My concern is that this pot will be 3-handed with opponents who require opposite counter-strategies on your part. Unless your hand is strong enough to raise for value, I don't think you can simultaneously outplay both opponents postflop.

Scott

callmedonnie · #6 12-13-2005, 04:43 PM

I think K9s might be a little too low of a hand to make this move PF, however against this guy I think it is fine if the blinds fold. Since the BB won't fold, I think you have to.

On the flop you have to be beat. I don't think capping will accomplish anything so if I were you I would call, and prob fold the turn UI, unless a backdoor out opens up for you.

Guruman · #7 12-13-2005, 05:33 PM

I think LAG probably tipped his hand with his flop line.

It looks like he flopped a monster and wanted to wait for the turn to get nutty. Since you decided to raise it up though, he may put you on an overpair and be hoping you'll go to war on multiple streets.

I call and fold a non-spade turn.

Redd · #8 12-13-2005, 05:36 PM

I don't see what's wrong with the pf play here? It looks to me that given the reads, the auto-opening LAG and the auto-cold-calling uberfish could each have any 2, giving us a likely equity edge even if they do call.

naphand · #9 12-13-2005, 06:09 PM

I think I do have an equity edge here but I am guilty of not thinking through what is likely post-flop.

Scotch78 made an interesting comment about each player requiring opposite strategies, while not necessarily true it is an important consideration. I do know that getting involved with a LAG and a calling station can be very profitable and my position on this table was perfect for this.

K9s...meh. PokerStove shows K9s against 2 random hands (and we are close to this here) has 42% equity. Even making some adjustments for removing the trashy offsuit hands for LAG and Fish, we are still looking at 40+ EV. This is quite substantial and I have perfect position to boot. Given such a profitable situation K9s is a good raise IMO, I have no reason to fear domination.

This hand is all post-flop. I agree with many who have commented that LAG's play is indicative of a big hand, although I cannot discount a pair plus draw. The twitchy bit is fish leading out the Flop; this counts against the chances he will fold to a cap but it may give me a free card should the Turn be a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] as LAG will want to trap and fish may be too passive to cope.

Quite some difference of opinion though regarding flop strategy.