Flop Broadway on a One-Suited Board

imported_legoman · #1 03-21-2005, 12:59 AM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, SB calls.

River: (15.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 bets, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB

Better way of playing it?

milesdyson · #2 03-21-2005, 01:06 AM

If I somehow checked the river... I would check raise it. Everyone just called you on the turn. If someone has a scared baby flush, so be it, but a lot of the high [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s are out.

So all I do differently is bet the river.

UncleSalty · #3 03-21-2005, 01:14 AM

It seems to me that with this many callers PF there's a significant chance you're already beat. Even if you're not, I'd say there's a 100% chance that someone has at least one heart.

Assuming you're against a draw, you currently own about 60% of the pot, or about 2BB. Assuming a 10% or better chance that the flush is already made, you own even less than that. IMHO, this pot is too small to go to war over, so I'd plan on checking down to the river unless I ran into heavy action on the turn, in which case it's a fold.

-Salty

UncleSalty · #4 03-21-2005, 01:16 AM

Miles, I just read your reply. Can you explain why the flop action is correct? It seems to me that if it's going to 3 bets on the flop, there's a high likelihood that the flush is already made? Am I totally missing some clue here?

UncleSalty · #5 03-21-2005, 01:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but a lot of the high [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s are out.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, I guess this answers my question. The only likely made flushes out there would be either J9h, 89h, or another unlikely low suited connector. Not very likely right? So, we feel good on the river since the made flush is ruled out?

Thus, the c/r on the river. (Or lead the river sounds like your preference.)

Thx,

-Salty

milesdyson · #6 03-21-2005, 01:26 AM

Yeah dude, nevermind, I kind of posted that without thinking much. Calling down after SB's flop 3-bet is probably better. There are just so many other guys obviously donating to us.

This hand sucks. I hate this hand. Don't flop straights on suited boards anymore.

UncleSalty · #7 03-21-2005, 01:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This hand sucks. I hate this hand. Don't flop straights on suited boards anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL.

imported_legoman · #8 03-23-2005, 10:08 PM

UncleSalty: this pot is only 3.5BB on the flop, but has the potential to get enormous, with 7 players in. AK,AT,KT are drawing to a boat, Qh, Jh are drawing to a flush. 3.5BB might be small, but say that there are 9 flush outs and 6 outs to pair the flop, so there are 15 outs for my opponents. This means that 45% of the time, none of the draws will hit. Assume another 10% of the time a flush is already made, so this means that 35% of the time, my hand will be best. So if I'm getting 2 callers, then I'm +EV. And it's worth going to war over.

The reason I check the river is that on the flop and turn, I'm charging the flush draw as much as I can. By the river, with the passive nature of THREE others, I'm fearing a lower flush. Do I still value bet?

I'll post results tomorrow.

big_river · #9 03-23-2005, 11:02 PM

The reason to bet the river is that if no one has the Q-x of hearts (which apparently no one did else they would have raised the turn), then you might get weak made flushes to fold.

If you are going to call a bet on the river anyway, wouldn't it make sense to be the bettor, vs calling?

Just tossing out random thoughts here.

MagicFlea · #10 03-23-2005, 11:06 PM

I don't see the logic in capping on the flop and then later being afraid of a hand that was made on the flop and hasn't improved. You capped the flop, and nothing came that could make your hand any worse... so I'd be merrily betting along.