Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw

[nolanfan34]

Hey all,

Here's a hand that I didn't play, but read from someone else. Wondering what people think, I had one gut reaction instantly, but the discussion that evolved made me rethink my thoughts.

Here's the hand.
---------------------------------------------------------
$10 SNG on Party.

The table was unusual for these SnGs in that there was a lot of limping and not much preflop raising.

Seat 1: null2 (1025)
Seat 2: Bob (413)
Seat 3: Joe (1735)
Seat 4: Sam (1261)
Seat 5: HERO (750)
Seat 10: null1 (2816)

Sam posts small blind (25)
HERO posts big blind (50)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
null1 folds.
null2 folds.
Bob raises (100) to 100
Joe calls (100)
Sam calls (75)
HERO calls (50)
-- Pot has 400

** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]
Sam bets (85)

I have 650 chips and the pot is now at 485. What should I do?

[pineapple888]

OK, I'll bite.

I push.

Now tell me why I'm wrong.

I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

What, you think they all hit this flop hard?

The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

What, you think they all hit this flop hard?

The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anybody with the Ac/Jc (possibly Kc/Qc) is folding here, therefore blowing away most of your outs that make you favourite against a pair. I just don't see you having the 15 outs that you imagine having here.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

What, you think they all hit this flop hard?

The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anybody with the Ac/Jc (possibly Kc/Qc) is folding here, therefore blowing away most of your outs that make you favourite against a pair. I just don't see you having the 15 outs that you imagine having here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a pair already. If AcKh wants to come along, for example, you're fine with that. If they have a better pair *and* a higher club, just draw to the non-club straight instead.

Sure, you can construct scenarios where each villain has specifically the type of hand that kills a different set of your outs, but how often will that happen?

I push. It takes a very special hand to be ahead of us here. Namely, a better hand and a better draw or a set, and there's tons of dead money in the pot.

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.1515 % 54.34% 00.81% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 44.8485 % 44.04% 00.81% { JdTs }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.5152 % 60.10% 01.41% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 38.4848 % 37.07% 01.41% { Ac8s }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.5051 % 43.94% 01.57% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 54.4949 % 52.93% 01.57% { 8d8s }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.9899 % 37.58% 01.41% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 61.0101 % 59.60% 01.41% { AcTs }

I think what's missing here is the possibility of there being two of these (or similar) hands out there. The fact that it's a multi-way pot drastically reduces your chances of winning, and you didn't even factor in anyone having the Jc.

[Michael C.]

[ QUOTE ]
I push. It takes a very special hand to be ahead of us here. Namely, a better hand and a better draw or a set, and there's tons of dead money in the pot.

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.1515 % 54.34% 00.81% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 44.8485 % 44.04% 00.81% { JdTs }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.5152 % 60.10% 01.41% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 38.4848 % 37.07% 01.41% { Ac8s }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.5051 % 43.94% 01.57% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 54.4949 % 52.93% 01.57% { 8d8s }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.9899 % 37.58% 01.41% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 61.0101 % 59.60% 01.41% { AcTs }

[/ QUOTE ] Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you have no reason to believe they are there?

Come on guys, you can't fold this and shouldn't even think about anything but pushing for over half a second.