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#1
12-12-2005, 09:34 PM
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Quad 8\'s in Back to Back Hands
So I hadn't played on Titan Poker in a while and I decided to finish clearing my bonus there. I sat down at a 1-2 limit table and the first hand im dealt is 89o. Flop comes 89x turn 8 river 8. And I win an 8$ pot. The very next hand im dealt 88. Flop is 58Q turn is A river is 8. I win another 8 dollar pot. What are the odds....?
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#2
12-12-2005, 09:39 PM
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Re: Quad 8\'s in Back to Back Hands
I'm not math major, but according to my calculations:
You get 1 pair 20% of the time, which means you get 2 pair 10% of the time. Then if you consider quads to be two-pair just with the same pair, then you divide that by 13. So you have 10%/13, and since it happened 2 hands in a row, you multiple by 2. So it is 20/13, which is around 1.5%
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#3
12-12-2005, 10:01 PM
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Re: Quad 8\'s in Back to Back Hands
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not math major, but according to my calculations: You made this up. [/ QUOTE ] FYP
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#4
12-12-2005, 10:15 PM
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Re: Quad 8\'s in Back to Back Hands
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not math major, but according to my calculations: You get 1 pair 20% of the time, which means you get 2 pair 10% of the time. Then if you consider quads to be two-pair just with the same pair, then you divide that by 13. So you have 10%/13, and since it happened 2 hands in a row, you multiple by 2. So it is 20/13, which is around 1.5% [/ QUOTE ] not to be a douche, but the chance of getting 2 sets on consecutive hands is less than 4%.. isn't it intuitive that getting quads twice in a row would be waaaaaaaaaaaaay less likely
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#5
12-12-2005, 10:16 PM
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Re: Quad 8\'s in Back to Back Hands
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not math major, but according to my calculations: You get 1 pair 20% of the time, which means you get 2 pair 10% of the time. Then if you consider quads to be two-pair just with the same pair, then you divide that by 13. So you have 10%/13, and since it happened 2 hands in a row, you multiple by 2. So it is 20/13, which is around 1.5% [/ QUOTE ] You could not be farther from the truth. Do you really think you are getting quads twice in a row that often? It's (4 choose 2) * (52 choose 2) that Hero is dealt pocket 8s. It's (2 choose 2) * (48 choose 3) / (50 choose 5) that Hero hits quads. Therefore the probability that Hero is dealt pocket 8s and hits quads is .003964%. Therefore the probability of the even that he is describing is considerably less.
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#7
12-12-2005, 11:33 PM
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Re: Quad 8\'s in Back to Back Hands
Does nobody understand the sarcasm in the 1.5% post? I don't really think anyone could be that dull. (Maybe I overestimate the intelligence of an average 2+2 poster, iunno.)
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#8
12-13-2005, 01:20 AM
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Re: Quad 8\'s in Back to Back Hands
[ QUOTE ]
Does nobody understand the sarcasm in the 1.5% post? I don't really think anyone could be that dull. (Maybe I overestimate the intelligence of an average 2+2 poster, iunno.) [/ QUOTE ] You overestimate.
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#10
12-13-2005, 02:45 AM
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Re: Quad 8\'s in Back to Back Hands
[ QUOTE ]
So I hadn't played on Titan Poker in a while and I decided to finish clearing my bonus there. I sat down at a 1-2 limit table and the first hand im dealt is 89o. Flop comes 89x turn 8 river 8. And I win an 8$ pot. The very next hand im dealt 88. Flop is 58Q turn is A river is 8. I win another 8 dollar pot. What are the odds....? [/ QUOTE ] You shouldn't overplay pocket pairs like 8's. See my post HERE if you don't understand why.
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