Your ENTIRE bankroll on AA...do you do it? - Page 14

gasoltub · #**131** 07-26-2005, 03:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
an unsuprising observation: "pro" players say no, recreational/semi-pro players say yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unsurprising because a recreational player probably has a much smaller roll that can fairly easily be replenished. So he's not risking as much as the pro.

Folding Pete · #**132** 07-26-2005, 04:11 AM

Yes

I have about $16k online at the moment and I'd put it all on such a scenario and I do play poker full time with no other income. One of the great things about this bet is that compared to moving up limits with a small bankroll you cannot be out played. It comes down to odds and how risk adverse you are.

The way I see it, it will take me x amount of time to double my bankroll. Here is a extremely favourable chance to double up instantly.

The higher the value of the bankroll (absolutely and too you) of course the less inclined you should be to go for this one time bet.

The other important point is not whether you have anything left to play with if you lose but whether you have access to credit. I have a credit card so if I bust out I can just deposit more money and play as normal.

Always be folding

viennagreen · #**133** 07-26-2005, 06:23 AM

i think that any pro who would take 4:1 shot at doubling their bankroll vs. busting out is a moron.

i wouldn't even risk going bust on a 10:1 shot.

i think it's different if poker isn't your sole source of income--- but for a person to gamble their livelihood on a single hand is just plain stupid.

the reward of doubling your bankroll versus the risk of no longer having an income is just not worth it.

"Any other play and I should pick up my chips, cash out, and play a different game than poker."------ I think anybody who would risk this shouldn't play poker for a living.

sekrah · #**134** 07-26-2005, 07:27 AM

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Because I spent months building up my bankroll and no one is a sure winner in the short term. I'm not going to risk it all on a single bet to get to a level of cash I will reach anyway.

Once you double up, then what? Would you do it again? Keep doing it till you're broke??

[/ QUOTE ]

The best argument for No.

Siingo · #**135** 07-26-2005, 07:49 AM

Lets say you have $10000 bankroll, and you pay your bills with your pokerplay. You are now playing in a homegame. You are the best player and one of the others get tired and challange you.

He has a 4 sided dice ( which you know are not a cheat dice). If the dice will show 1 then he winns your 10000 and if it would show 2,3 or 4 then you win 10000.

Would you take the bet. Would you risk your entire bankroll?

Arnfinn Madsen · #**136** 07-26-2005, 08:00 AM

I would do it even if I pay my bills with poker now. If I would lose I would take a credit card and it would give me the bankroll I would need to win some cash. Then I would pay the credit card bill first month.

I think I would play very much then, but keep the limits modest, as I would be risking tilt in such a situation.

viennagreen · #**137** 07-26-2005, 08:23 AM

how is this a different question?

xniNja · #**138** 07-26-2005, 08:33 AM

I think his point was to try to show that it's almost a pure gamble and eliminates the edge you have by seeing lots of hands.

MicroBob · #**139** 07-26-2005, 08:42 AM

right.

as I stated before...the argument that some are making that "it doesn't get any better than that in poker" is irrelvent.

Just because it's the best you can get in a given game does NOT mean it's worth risking your entire net-worth on it.

I was trying to make a similar point that this exercise has NOTHING to do with 'pushing all-in with AA' and EVERYTHING to do with 'risking everything you have with a 15-20% chance of risk-of-ruin'.

It could be different colored marbles in a box or bingo numbers or a 100 sided die. Yes, it's all the same.
But some seem to think that as a poker analogy you are pretty much 'bound' to do it since you are already a poker-player...and it doesn't get any better than this situation for poker-players. something like that anyway.

David · #**140** 07-26-2005, 08:59 AM

OK, maybe I was looking at this wrong. My viewpoint is; If I put my entire $20K bankroll on AA and lost I would instantly create a new bankroll of say $5K. From that viewpoint I would beat him in the pot. Now, if losing would put me out of action for a significant amount of time or even permanently then I would have to fold. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Question.....would anybody here fold face up? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

View Poll Results: What should KaneFu do with the money?
Leave the decision to El D's superior judgement.	33	16.18%
Add it to his mid/high stakes roll.	4	1.96%
Burn it while laughing maniacally.	21	10.29%
Pay it to Yugo as promised.	146	71.57%
Voters: 204. You may not vote on this poll