A way online poker sites *could* rig their games

[JustSaying]

I am not claiming that any online poker site is rigging their games. However, one should not make the naive mistake that a poker site is simply incapable of such activity. Here is a simple outline of how a poker site could choose to rig their games.
I'm not arguing that it would be in their interest to do so. Rather, that it is a possibility. Remember, when money is involved, people do difficult and even irrational things.

The most important reason I think it is possible is that it would be so difficult for anyone to prove that it was happening, and hence easy to get away with. Why?
1. The servers executing the poker software are completely responsible for the succession of cards that are generated. "Fixing a deck" is trivial to do and undetectable in the short run.
2. The servers have, in principle, perfect information... about every card dealt in every game and every play made by every player for the entire history of the site.
3. Outside of the company, no individual player can guarantee what software is being executed on the servers.

These three points make it extremely difficult for anyone to catch an online poker site even if they were rigging their games. This is because a hypothetical watchdog group hoping to prove that an online poker site is rigging their games would have to collect a massive amount of hand histories. This is far from a trivial task, since the *complete* information about even a single hand is distributed between several players. If the site is creating artificial players, even this wouldn't be possible. Suppose this watchdog group is able to cobble together a massive, if imperfect database of hand histories. Even after collecting this massive amount of data, they would have to exhibit statistically significant evidence of some sort of rigging. Since the poker site always has at least as much information about its activities as the watchdog group, it is possible that the poker site could monitor its own activities and insure that any rigged behavior is occuring at less than statistically significant levels. Any intelligent poker site operator who is interested in rigging their games would only have to worry about point #3 breaking down with an expose on 60 Minutes.

The simplest way a poker site could rig games is by inventing their own house players. These players could be generated simply to generate action and programmed to win just enough hands to remain profitable. Alternatively, these players could be more nefarious and could be generated specifically to target certain players, based on their playing patterns, betting patterns, winning or losing history, credit report, etc. These players could be generated simply to obscure other forms of game rigging. It is impossible for anyone outside of the poker site to prove that they were artifically generated. If these artificially generated players have short lifetimes, it would make it difficult for anyone tracking the play on the site to prove anything strange was happening.

Of course, cards could be dealt to increase the action on the site or to keep poorly performing players interested, at least in the short run. There are numerous subtle ways that the site could deal the cards that would pass MOST inspections as a random deal but increase rake to the casino. For example, the site could slightly increase the probability of good starting hands like AA,KK,AK for player who plays poorly over the *short* run to keep their interest. To insure that the overall distribution of cards being dealt would pass a random test, the quality of starting cards for the remaining players could be adjusted appropriately. In the *long* run, the distribution of cards for the player would have to be adjusted so that the sequence of cards that player sees would pass a test for randomness, so this couldn't go on indefinitely. However, it would be easy to be less obvious about it by utilizing cards that certain players play uniquely well or poorly.

[apd138]

Nice first post.

[Freakin]

Summary:

Party Poker may or may not be rigged!

[krimson]

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Nice first post.

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Look at the username. this isn't his/her first post on 2+2. It's someone who created a new id to post this.

I love how these posts about how the site could be, or is rigged keep getting more and more complicated. I wonder if the people who claim a site is rigged have ever programmed in their life.

[Sifmole]

And I wonder if you will stop and think, rather than just spouting "It's not rigged" without critical thought.

I for one have a Comp Sci degree and have been a programmer / software engineer for the last 12 years... So yeah, I have programmed in my life.

How 'bout you?

[b0000000000m]

Yes, absolutely. But I don't think anyone intelligent believes that it's theoretically impossible for the sites to cheat players.

[StellarWind]

Rigging the software of a major poker site would require the cooperation of quite a few people--mathematicians, systems engineers, software designers, software developers, testers, and configuration managers. Plus management to come up with the idea of course. By far the biggest obstacle to getting away with something like this would be keeping everyone's mouth shut. Even in places like India software engineers change jobs extremely often.

I would never say that it can't happen because people are often foolish and dishonest. However the risks involved for a successful poker site simply aren't worth it.

For a new site or an older site that is on hard times there is another factor that protects against site rigging. Why bother with elaborate software schemes? Why not just take all the deposits and run off to Rio?

[joshman1204]

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Rigging the software of a major poker site would require the cooperation of quite a few people--mathematicians, systems engineers, software designers, software developers, testers, and configuration managers

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You obviously dont know many young guys obsessed with programming or you dont have a very good grasp of what is possible in the world of programming. rigging a site wouldnot require all of these people it would simple require one person to write a program that ever so slightly tilts the RNG. You have to keep in mind how many hands these places deal in a single day, it isnt going to take much of a tilt to increase profits.

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Why not just take all the deposits and run off to Rio

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What makes you think they havent already done this??? Do you actually think party enough money to cover every dollar in play on their tables? I seriously doubt party could cover 1/100th of the money on their tables. I dont even think we know for sure that these sites are profitable yet so your whole thesis about it being to risky to ruin a profitable business is completly useless.

These sites (except for stars) are high tech ponsi schemes until they certify that they can cover every chip in play. Without having the reserves for every chip in play they are simply paying you with someone else deposit which is the exact definition of a ponsi scheme.

[FlFishOn]

"I would never say that it can't happen because people are often foolish and dishonest. However the risks involved for a successful poker site simply aren't worth it."

I see it as maybe a site is successful because they bugger the shuffle. Floating the fish with a few helpful river cards has such a huge positive effect I know I'd be tempted. It's undetectable and it moves the money right into the hands of the players least likely to cash it out. Add to that the fact that fish will really enjoy sucking out and it's a win-win.

I'd write more on the topic but it's all old ground, well covered. That and I'm short on tin foil.