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shillx: so when raised you lay this down??


i really dont think that the percentage of his range in which a flush draw occurs (and where it would be correct to charge the extra .5BB) is anywhere near enough to call this anything but WA/WB. particularly when there is 4.5BB already in the pot on the flop.

[silkyslim]

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I raise this flop. Smaller pairs are calling you down, and if they have an A you can get away from it without putting in 2BB on the bigger streets. Also, you'd never play an A like this if you had one, so you're just making yourself more readable by calling down here.

When there is a flush draw on the flop the hand is not a WA/WB situation. You can't fold the river against an unknown.

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yeah i like the ol' 2+2 raise fold to a 3 bet on the flop. for the reasons the black guy mentioned

your getting ~15 to 1 when you raise and he 3bets.

[macdaddy991]

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your getting ~15 to 1 when you raise and he 3bets.

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Yes but if you are behind an ace, then you don't have the required 22-1 to catch a queen.

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your getting ~15 to 1 when you raise and he 3bets.

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After we raise and establish that he has the case A, can we make up the deficit in implied odds?

If the Q does fall, there is only 2 possible combos of AQ (which we can discount) out there and villian is drawing to 7 outs 99% of the time.

This means villian has only 15% equity if we make our hand on the turn. We have 85% of all money from there on in.

I think a conservative estimate would be ~5BB implied earnings. Hero owns 4.2BB or 8.4sb.

8.4sb + 15sb = 23.4sb requiring 22.5:1.

But then there are the time he slows down on the turn to aggression because he fears his kicker is no good but then go nuts when he fills up on the river.

I think the marginal +EV you might have by making the call is negated by the times he flips over A5.

I think it's close but I think folding is better.

This hand/situation coming up so rarely + you hitting your 2 outs on the turn so rarely + 15% chance of taking a severe beating when you hit = fold.

[shant]

You think it's conservative to say that you'll get 5BB after the flop if you turn a Q? I think the only way 5BB go into the pot from a typical player is if you're beat. I'd say 3.5BB is a conservative number, and I still agree with you that you can fold to the 3-bet on the flop.

[Aaron W.]

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When you have AK and this exact action takes place, how do you play the hand? If I raise QQ, AK, flush draws, and flopped full houses on this flop, I am setting myself up to be paid off a lot more. I'm not sure if opponents at this level are paying attention but as you move up this is more and more important.

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What about call-call-raise with AK and call-call-call with QQ? This allows villain to bluff the most and puts him in a spot where he's just one bet from looking you up, making him more likely to call. In the back of my mind, I have this hand which I posted not too long ago.

[shant]

Aaron,

I occasionally take a call, call, raise line too. But I usually do that when there has been another raise before the flop so I can put my opponent on a range where I am way ahead or tied with them and want them to keep betting their JJ-KK or AQ. It also helps if I have a read on the opponent as a strong player who can read hands and will lay down to aggression. I don't think this situation is anywhere close to that one.

[Thebram]

...grunch...

I dont see how the flop call is even close to correct.
Given the possibility of a flush draw, I dont see this as a WA/WB situation either. (You're about 2:1 against any two hearts that dont include an ace)

His donk bet on this board into the PFR doesnt scream confidence to me.
I raise the flop and take a free showdown if I feel I need it. (IE the flush got there, or the hand isnt HU)