NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29

The system may still be right. I'm seeing 81% of bets on the ranked team Illinois. Still sticking with my Illinois play though.

[CieloAzor]

I can't see how UNC will pull this off, but I don't care. I'm on this trend all year long. Just got UNC -1 (-105).

[Allin72]

I have been looking forward to following this trend from the first time i read it posted...but im being a square. All I know is UNC lost their top 7 scorers from last season and Illinois still has Dee Brown, whihc is good enough for me. Im on Illinois +1.5 -110. Hopefully this trend goes 100-1, with this loss being the one

[jedinite]

For what its worth, UNC has what's generally regarded as the top recruiting class this year. They are going to upset a lot of people this year, but they're not going to be consistent enough to get it done long-term.

I think, per Caldarooni's post, that the mechanics underlying this trend likely do not apply here: UNC is not an under-exposed team and are going to have plenty of money floating on their side as a nationally-followed team, not to mention the last-years-champs factor.

For what its worth, I'd stay away from this game entirely, but if you were going to make a play I'd take UNC at home. They are exceedingly talented and very tough at home.

Bodog has this at a pick'em (-110).

[asb165]

This is down to a pick 'em

People on here need to stop overthinking sports betting in my opinion. If this trend is hitting at a good %, blindly following it is better than saying you like the trend but finding a reason to go against it. I remember when I first started betting sports. I figured I could look at the lines and bet the obvious games. That is a recipe for disaster. I guess people that get 46% of the games right get enough positive reenforcement to think they know sports betting.

[scott8]

I really think this argument will continue to appear every time the trend warrants betting on a game.

The best move may be to link the post where No Chance explains the trend and move on.

[TwoNiner]

Every year I bet hoops, and follow this trend and cuss myself for not solely playing it and no other picks and each year I wonder if it will be the year it falls off.

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
I checked Sagarin and it puts them at even, so with the game being played in Carolina -2 or -3 would make logical sense. However, one must look past the early Sagarin "data" in this game dont you think?


[/ QUOTE ]

I loooove Sagarin predictor, but I do agree that Sagarin data is weak this early in the season. I think that the line comes from two factors:

(1) UNC is better than most people think.
(2) Illinois is worse than most people think.

Maybe Illinois is a point or two better, but the game is at UNC, so there you go.

EDIT: Indy, I have no idea why you would take Illinois -2 when you could have gotten them at +2 early. There is no way that can be a good bet. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[NoChance]

0-1 but it's a long season.