hand from 650 satellite

[MINETZ]

My reads: the villan is definatley someone who qualified in a 3 satelite aka a complete fish, he is a pretty passive donkey, high vpip, decent pfr, but can shut down when shown agression, this doesnt fit his betting patterns at all, what do u guys think my play is?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP2 (t3790)
CO (t540)
Button (t2075)
Hero (t3425)
BB (t5675)
UTG (t2085)
MP1 (t8055)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t30, [color=#666666]4 folds</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t90) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets t90</font>, [color=#CC3333]BB raises to t1590</font>, MP1 folds, Hero ?????

It's a pretty draw heavy board so he might be fearing for his overpair right now and thinking, why did I ever check out of the BB? I can't imagine playing the nuts or a set like this, but who knows.

I probably lay it down just because, it's like 180 chips and then agonize for hours.

[ClaytonN]

i highly doubt a set, he can play two pair this way or a made straight. the big raise usually means he's fearing someone sucking out on him.

I'd say his range is good 7s, two pair, or a set.

Board: 7h 6h 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 71.5342 % 65.68% 05.86% { 7d6c }
Hand 2: 28.4658 % 22.61% 05.86% { 77-66, 44, A7s, K7s, Q7s, 74s+, 64s, A7o, K7o, Q7o, 74o+, 64o }

[aaronbeen]

Surprised no one said this: big draw.
I don't think the villain has a set or two pair here very often at all. I doubt you will ever see a made straight. Likely hands are flush draw + overs, pair+ flush draw, pair+straight draw, straight draw + flush draw, etc. Individually you are even money or better against all of those hands and you are crushing a few of them. Satellite or not this is level 2 and 1500 chips so any +cev play seems fine. I instacall start another tournament if he hits.

[nath]

big made hands DON'T overbet the pot like this. They have to be REAL first level thinkers (i.e. "I have a good hand! All in!") for that to be the case.
it's almost always a draw.

[Pasterbator]

I dont think you can fold this, and i wouldnt be looking for reasons to. It is much more likely that you will see 5xh, 75, A7, 74, 55, or an overpair, than you you will see a hand that has you beat - 58, 53, or 44, 66, 77.

If you consider him a donkey, you will probably see a FD+pair, OESD+TP or complete garbage. You are WAAAY ahead of his range. You need to call this.

Jason

Edit: I misread the bet size/stack sizes. Change all the "calls" to "POOOOOOSH"

[Exitonly]

overpairs call a push, so i push.

though i can see just calling to get him to donkbet at it again.

[MINETZ]

he doesnt have an overpair here... hes very agressive preflop, had raised multiple times from the bb.

[MikeSmith]

[ QUOTE ]
My reads: the villan is definatley someone who qualified in a 3 satelite aka a complete fish, he is a pretty passive donkey, high vpip, decent pfr, but can shut down when shown agression, this doesnt fit his betting patterns at all, what do u guys think my play is?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP2 (t3790)
CO (t540)
Button (t2075)
Hero (t3425)
BB (t5675)
UTG (t2085)
MP1 (t8055)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t30, [color=#666666]4 folds</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t90) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets t90</font>, [color=#CC3333]BB raises to t1590</font>, MP1 folds, Hero ?????

[/ QUOTE ]

Cant put him on set or flopped straight, certainly would be slowplayed even by an aggressor. PUSH