Digging out of this hole

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Pooooosh.


Board: Ac Qh Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.8242 % 45.27% 07.56% { ATs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, 8h7h, 6h5h, 5h4h, ATo-A8o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 47.1758 % 39.62% 07.56% { As9s }

This range doesn't include bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ] The problem with this calculation is that it assumes all hands that you put the villian on are equally likely (given the cards that are left in the deck and the cards that are needed to make the hands you put the villian on).

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This effect is more than countered by the fact that bluffs are left out.

judging by the prizes you listed, if you were female or gay, you might enjoy taking 2nd place

[CardSharpCook]

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I'm really confused as to why villian wouldn't push. I let this go. Believe his agression. A9 isn't a strong hand any more.

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what makes you think he should push?

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Misread the info. You said "6500 more" - I thought that that was how much more he had.

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pretty scary flop to be giving a free card on, no?


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Is villain checking behind with a draw?

any non heart from 6 down. the more i think about it, the more i think you have to include mid pp's in the range. 99-66. that makes the call even more appropriate. earlier on this site, someone was asking for advice about how to steal a pot with 55 and a board of A-Q-J, so anything is possible.

[SossMan]

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pretty scary flop to be giving a free card on, no?


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Is villain checking behind with a draw?

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when a preflop raiser checks on that board and I have a draw to beat a set, I would most certainly check behind.

[FrogMouth]

Calling is stupid, and pushing gives him ~3/1 on a call. Very marginal situation. Fold, you WILL have better opportunities than this!

[durron597]

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I wouldn't bet this flop. I want to be the guy putting in the (check)raise to 10k.

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pretty scary flop to be giving a free card on, no?

I guess the plan is to ch-raise to 10k and fold to a push?

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Yes, my plan is to checkraise to 10k and fold to a push.

I think that this is the sort of flop that almost always gets bet by villian, unless he has like 88 which I am not too worried about anyway. I think he bets here with like KQ a lot of the time.

If a scare card hits the turn (any broadway) I am happy to get out of this hand with so chips invested in a satellite situation when I have a large stack already. I'm not particularly afraid of hearts because the hearts on board are big and unless he's calling me with a crap suited ace I'm way way way behind already.

[schwza]

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No read on villian? I fold this.

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villain has played a lot of pots, usually the aggressor. reread the OP. against an unknown, i agree it's a fold.

[Jason Strasser]

Soss,

Tell the hero to check the flop. There are drawbacks to checking like if bad guy has K2s and then see's a free turn, but there are more benefits to checking.

The first is that so many draws and hands that are behind will CR you. So if you bet, I'm probably going to stick it in, especially given the tournament conditions that its 1st or nada. So if you bet you gotta assume an aggressive opponent with KQ QJ JT Ax, flush draw, blah blah, will put you to the test here.

Checking behind keeps the pot managable. Then on the turn if he checks to you, go ahead and value bet. You are far less likely to get CR by a worse hand on the turn.

-Jason