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#1
11-02-2005, 06:01 PM
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the long run and infinity
Take into consideration what most poker texts argue about the "long run" (the mythical area where luck disappears in poker) b/c of the huge number of hands played. Theoretially, does this mean that one can represent the "the long run" by a quantifiable value, like 10,000,000? after ten million hands I think we've achieved the long run but even more importantly we can use infinity. If one plays infinitely many hands (impossible of course) can't the amount of "luck" be quantified through a process that can be measured graphically? The reason I argue this is b/c as we approach infinity luck is diminishing, correct? So, can luck be determined graphically? Similar to a limit problem in calculus? lol, this is simply something to ponder and I post it else where to get some lofty debate going...
thanks for reading my theory -Brent 
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#2
11-02-2005, 06:08 PM
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Re: the long run and infinity
You can use statistics to come up with actual numbers, you need things like win rates, standard deviations, and confidence intervals.
AKA you can say after X hands with 99.99% certaintity that your true winrate is Y.
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#3
11-02-2005, 06:14 PM
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Re: the long run and infinity
[ QUOTE ]
You can use statistics to come up with actual numbers, you need things like win rates, standard deviations, and confidence intervals. AKA you can say after X hands with 99.99% certaintity that your true winrate is Y. [/ QUOTE ] I think this answers the question, but just to clarify... With an infinite number of hands the confidence interval would be a single number with 100% certainty. By the time you have a sample of millions of hands, you'd be really close to that number.
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#4
11-02-2005, 06:18 PM
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Re: the long run and infinity
I suggest posting this question in the probability forum, they would give you actual formulas and stuff for calculating these things.
I took some pretty intensive statistics courses in college and we learned all about this stuff. The questions were things along the lines of "A factory is filling up juice boxes to 5 oz and want to never fill up the boxes to less than 4.95 and more than 5.05, how many boxes would you need to sample to say with 99% certaintity that the boxes are truely in this range" and varients etc.
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#6
11-02-2005, 06:58 PM
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Re: the long run and infinity
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You can use statistics to come up with actual numbers, you need things like win rates, standard deviations, and confidence intervals. AKA you can say after X hands with 99.99% certaintity that your true winrate is Y. [/ QUOTE ] I think this answers the question, but just to clarify... With an infinite number of hands the confidence interval would be a single number with 100% certainty. By the time you have a sample of millions of hands, you'd be really close to that number. [/ QUOTE ] Probably [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
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#7
11-02-2005, 07:25 PM
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Re: the long run and infinity
Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- does this mean that one can represent the "the long run" by a quantifiable value, -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No. But one can use a "significant" but finite number of trials to represent the long run, with the understanding that in reality the long run is theoretical and may not be definealbe. At least that's how I see the long run and use it for practical purposes. Vince
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#8
11-02-2005, 08:07 PM
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Re: the long run and infinity
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You can use statistics to come up with actual numbers, you need things like win rates, standard deviations, and confidence intervals. AKA you can say after X hands with 99.99% certaintity that your true winrate is Y. [/ QUOTE ] I think this answers the question, but just to clarify... With an infinite number of hands the confidence interval would be a single number with 100% certainty. By the time you have a sample of millions of hands, you'd be really close to that number. [/ QUOTE ] Probably [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] nh
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#10
11-02-2005, 10:32 PM
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Re: the long run and infinity
[ QUOTE ]
You can use statistics to come up with actual numbers, you need things like win rates, standard deviations, and confidence intervals. AKA you can say after X hands with 99.99% certaintity that your true winrate is Y. [/ QUOTE ] You can use facts to prove things that are even remotely true. Facts shmacks.
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