NFL Team Rankings

[NoChance]

I know I am asking for trouble for posting this because you all will flame me but I am going to go ahead and post this anyway because it should create some good discussion.

Anyway, I have a spreadsheet that tracks how each team performs both offensively and defensively compared to how it's opponents cumulative averages. This gives me a percentage of how a team has performed over or lower than the cumulative averages of it's opponents. For offense, a good average would be 1.09 (or 9% more than the other teams usually give up) for example. For defense, a good percentage is usually around 0.85 which means you give up 15% less than your opponents usually score.

Anyway, I use a formula to add winning percentage, offensive scoring percentage, and defensive scoring percentages to come up with a rating. The results are surprising in some cases and I know it's early but it will tweak itself more accurate and more data is applied each week. Note that this formula does not focus completly on a team's record (or even who they beat or lost to) but also how they performed against each team.

This is what last years final ranking looked like:

2.414 New England
1.816 Pittsburgh
1.806 Philadelphia
1.709 Indianapolis
1.494 San Diego
1.426 Buffalo
1.422 NY Jets
1.302 Baltimore
1.073 Denver
0.787 Jacksonville
0.687 Atlanta
0.660 Kansas City
0.629 Cincinnati
0.605 NY Giants
0.518 Carolina
0.518 Miami
0.455 Green Bay
0.429 Minnesota
0.421 Washington
0.346 Houston
0.293 Tampa Bay
0.180 Seattle
0.156 Arizona
0.105 Detroit
-0.079 New Orleans
-0.132 St. Louis
-0.214 Cleveland
-0.249 Chicago
-0.280 Oakland
-0.337 Tennesee
-0.398 Dallas
-1.406 San Francisco


Using the exact same formula, here is the current ranking for this year (including this weekend's games):

2.571 Indianapolis
2.490 Cincinnati
1.790 Washington
1.715 Atlanta
1.698 Philadelphia
1.624 Chicago
1.606 Denver
1.460 Pittsburgh
1.380 San Diego
1.363 Tampa Bay
1.284 NY Giants
1.268 Miami
0.929 Jacksonville
0.775 Seattle
0.624 Cleveland
0.510 New England
0.476 Kansas City
0.325 Dallas
0.137 Oakland
0.003 Carolina
-0.049 New Orleans
-0.327 Minnesota
-0.457 Detroit
-0.505 Buffalo
-0.512 St. Louis
-0.529 Tennesee
-0.552 NY Jets
-0.647 Arizona
-0.712 Baltimore
-0.772 Houston
-0.888 Green Bay
-1.407 San Francisco

Interesting. Pure stats, no bias.

[jstnrgrs]

As I understand from your description, your formula desn't even know who has played who. Is this right? If not, I'd like to see how it ranks college teams.

[MCS]

How are you getting negative numbers? I was expecting the average team to be 2.5 (avg offense = 1, avg defense = 1, winning% = 0.5).

[NoChance]

[ QUOTE ]
How are you getting negative numbers? I was expecting the average team to be 2.5 (avg offense = 1, avg defense = 1, winning% = 0.5).

[/ QUOTE ]

If I did it that way, win percent would not have enough weight. I had to use 'avgoff - 1' and '1 - avgdef' to bring those numbers down. So, 1.050 on offense would actually be a 0.050 rating. 1.050 on defense would actually be a -0.05 rating. Oh hell, here is what I have for each team for ratings:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Teams OFF DEF
Arizona 0.7098 1.1055
Atlanta 1.0750 0.7284
Baltimore 0.5854 1.0722
Buffalo 0.6965 1.0494
Carolina 1.1040 1.1793
Chicago 1.2632 0.7452
Cincinnati 1.2568 0.6746
Cleveland 1.2500 1.0696
Dallas 0.9823 1.0466
Denver 1.0289 0.7338
Detroit 0.8136 1.1391
Green Bay 0.7722 1.1442
Houston 0.6141 1.0000
Indianapolis 0.9610 0.4502
Jacksonville 1.0206 0.8707
Kansas City 1.2215 1.1556
Miami 1.1809 0.9203
Minnesota 1.1278 1.2776
New England 1.1024 1.0649
New Orleans 0.7486 1.0156
NY Giants 1.3737 1.0710
NY Jets 0.6431 1.0294
Oakland 0.8563 0.9418
Philadelphia 1.2141 0.8267
Pittsburgh 1.0776 0.7872
San Diego 1.3333 0.9288
San Francisco 0.8064 1.4232
Seattle 1.2699 1.0883
St. Louis 0.8700 1.2507
Tampa Bay 0.9240 0.8282
Tennesee 1.0795 1.3127
Washington 0.7963 0.6008 </pre><hr />

As the season goes on, the numbers become tighter and tighter. You can see teams like KC who are over 1.0 for both stats generally have higher scoring games. You can also see how Indy has actually scored less than other teams against those same opponents while giving up only half what the other teams normally score. I've used this to generate lines and totals for wagering over the years and it usually is within 2 or 3 points when I create my own lines.

Anyway, the ratings will change as the season goes on but a few teams caught me by surprise the way they have played this year so far. I like numbers. It's fun for me.

By the end of each year, the team with stats similar to what Atlanta has on this list usually win the superbowl. I won a lot of money when Tampa Bay crushed the Raiders a few years back because this showed me they should have been favored. It's usually a team that scores about 1.07 on offense but is 0.80 or lower on defense.

Edited to add: the reason for the negative numbers is because anything less than 1 on offense is a negative and anything higher than 1 on defense is a negative. I added multipliers which is why the positives and negatives are not equal. If you look at last year's rankings, they are pretty close to most would expect.

[NoChance]

In case anyone cares...

This was after Week 4:
[ QUOTE ]
2.571 Indianapolis
2.490 Cincinnati
1.790 Washington
1.715 Atlanta
1.698 Philadelphia
1.624 Chicago
1.606 Denver
1.460 Pittsburgh
1.380 San Diego
1.363 Tampa Bay
1.284 NY Giants
1.268 Miami
0.929 Jacksonville
0.775 Seattle
0.624 Cleveland
0.510 New England
0.476 Kansas City
0.325 Dallas
0.137 Oakland
0.003 Carolina
-0.049 New Orleans
-0.327 Minnesota
-0.457 Detroit
-0.505 Buffalo
-0.512 St. Louis
-0.529 Tennesee
-0.552 NY Jets
-0.647 Arizona
-0.712 Baltimore
-0.772 Houston
-0.888 Green Bay
-1.407 San Francisco

[/ QUOTE ]

This is current after Week 5:

2.787 Indianapolis
1.826 Cincinnati
1.777 Pittsburgh
1.516 Tampa Bay
1.472 Denver
1.471 Jacksonville
1.440 Cleveland
1.400 Washington
1.269 San Diego
1.065 Atlanta
0.976 NY Giants
0.960 Dallas
0.838 Philadelphia
0.807 Chicago
0.774 Seattle
0.727 Miami
0.645 New England
0.561 Green Bay
0.389 Detroit
0.327 Carolina
0.267 Kansas City
0.132 Oakland
-0.097 NY Jets
-0.121 Buffalo
-0.414 Tennesee
-0.510 St. Louis
-0.552 Arizona
-0.938 Minnesota
-0.974 New Orleans
-0.979 Baltimore
-1.204 Houston
-1.454 San Francisco

[imported_CaseClosed326]

Very cool stuff.

[NoChance]

After Week 6:

2.511 Indianapolis
1.722 Jacksonville
1.692 Tampa Bay
1.586 Cincinnati
1.434 Denver
1.269 San Diego
1.233 Pittsburgh
1.189 Dallas
1.171 Washington
1.164 Chicago
0.993 Seattle
0.940 NY Giants
0.853 Atlanta
0.822 Philadelphia
0.728 Cleveland
0.668 Detroit
0.592 Green Bay
0.457 Kansas City
0.447 Miami
0.392 Carolina
0.331 New England
0.104 Buffalo
0.024 Oakland
-0.192 Baltimore
-0.283 NY Jets
-0.310 Tennesee
-0.564 St. Louis
-0.579 Arizona
-0.970 New Orleans
-1.124 Minnesota
-1.421 San Francisco
-1.512 Houston

[pryor15]

don't you wonder about a metric that has cleveland, detroit, and miami ahead of carolina and new england?

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
don't you wonder about a metric that has cleveland, detroit, and miami ahead of carolina and new england?

[/ QUOTE ]

"psst, Green Bay too"

it seems this system would reward teams that have had blowout games. For instance, Green Bay's blowout over the Saints, and Chicago's blowout over Detroit and the Vikes. I think if there was some way to consider point stacking late in the game (teams behave very differently when they're behind - they become one dimensional)... and there'd be more variability early on in the season based on the teams they play. Again, using the terrible NFC north division as an example - the Bears, Lions, and Packers are higher than perhaps they should be because they play in such weak divisions - and have an easier schedule.

...just an idea - but I think this is pretty cool.