$2/$4 Hand

[Roland]

Seeing that two spades, a six and a ten are dead I probably should have folded on 3rd.
I was, of course, hoping to sneak into a multi-way pot for the bring-in, pair my door and get one million callers - unfortunately though, I ended up 3-way with the only two decent players at my table.
What’s my 5th street play?


7 Card Stud High ($2/$4), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (1.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 3: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (5.50 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 4: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (4.25 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___

[MRBAA]

I think you played this fine. Getting trapped for a completion is no big deal in this structure. I just call fifth and hope to hit one of my 4 fives 2 tens or 2 sevens.

[Jeffage]

Raise. The K is unlikely to have kings and is more likely to be betting his board or one pair. Your raise should force the (likely) pair of tens to fold and improve your chances of winning the pot with two pair if currently behind. Plus you have your str8 outs. Time to splash.

Jeff

[sexdrugsmoney]

I'm folding this on 3rd.

I don't value my pair much, nor my kicker. (though it is suited)

If I was in Late Position though, I'd definately play it.

[lstream]

Hey Roland - with two kings and a live queen yet to act, I would fold third. On fifth I either raise or fold depending on how feisty I am feeling at the time. I lean towards the raise since you are likely not too far behind seat 2, but if you end up with two pair they are unlikely to hold up against both opponents. Representing the straight will very likely force out seat 7 and get you a free card on sixth if you end up wanting it.

[MRBAA]

ummmm...the king is unlikely to have split kings because? he's one of the two decent players, he's bet every street. Sure one king is dead, but I think split kings is his most likely hand, with a pocket pair next.

[Jeffage]

I misread the action on 3rd...he probably does have kings. But my advice to raise stands. Hero's expection (IMO) is better if he can get it heads-up. He will win more often if he hits two pair then if he allows the third guy to stay in. Plus it gives you more options on 6th street.

Jeff

[Bartholow]

I think folding on 5th would be a big mistake. I'd raise but I could see calling if it's the sort of game where your raise won't get anyone out.

[MRBAA]

Yeah, you're probably right.

[Roland]

I folded, thinking I was in bad shape with two or three of my straight outs gone. Folding is clearly terrible though, I see that now (after running some sims, hehe [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ).
Since seat 3 is almost guaranteed to fold and seat 2 is almost guaranteed to give me a free card on 6th street, raising should be +EV even against king up. Also, I probably win a bit on the river on average.
Ah well.


Against kings:

Ks Ts 5c Kd 4d 224321 44.86 275679 55.14 0 0.00 0.449
9s 7s 8d 6d 7h 275679 55.14 224321 44.86 0 0.00 0.551

Against kings up:

Ks Ts 4c Kd 4d 310522 62.10 189478 37.90 0 0.00 0.621
9s 7s 8d 6d 7h 189478 37.90 310522 62.10 0 0.00 0.379


Against kings and tens:

Ks Ts 5c Kd 4d 192442 38.49 307558 61.51 0 0.00 0.385
9s 7s 8d 6d 7h 231752 46.35 268248 53.65 0 0.00 0.464
Qc Td 2d Th 3h 75806 15.16 424194 84.84 0 0.00 0.152