Is this really correct?

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
You're saying that he will NEVER have a starting hand other than pocket QQ, KK or split aces to call your double bet on fourth here. If that is true, your fold is correct.



[/ QUOTE ]

How so? If he has pocket KK or QQ than OP wins the hand with KKQQ vs. KKJJ or QQJJ.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
Or a big three flush that paired jacks on fourth.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he folds that. And any pair lower than jacks.

[dandy_don]

[ QUOTE ]
Next, some math.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope I entered this correctly, but I just wanted to see for myself what twodimes would show...

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1244890
pokenum -7s kh ks qs qc th 7c 6s - ad js jc 5c / ah 2d 9d 8c ts 7d 3d 6d 5s 9c
7-card Stud Hi: 26970 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Qs 6s Qc 7c Kh Th 16980 62.96 9990 37.04 0 0.00 0.630
Js Jc 5c Ad 9990 37.04 16980 62.96 0 0.00 0.370

[BTirish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Or a big three flush that paired jacks on fourth.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he folds that. And any pair lower than jacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you know your opponent better than we do. For my part, I'm more likely to give it up with aces on 4th (or on 5th if my opponent had bet into my open J's) than I am with Q-Q-A-J. This is what offsets the fact that it is mathematically much more likely for him to have A-x than K-K or Q-Q.

[djr]

[ QUOTE ]
Next, some math. I have seen 21 cards which leaves 31, two of which are aces. So there are 29*2 ways he can have an ace in the hole, or 58 ways. (Did I get this right?)

[/ QUOTE ]

59 ways, you forgot AA in the hole.

[MRBAA]

Because Roland is comparing the pot odds to the card odds of his opponent having a hand he can beat. If he narrows the starting hands as specified, he does not have sufficient pot odds to call.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that I like checking on 5th, but it's close. I'm pretty aggressive, so I rarely like giving up the lead on the betting unless I'm pretty sure that I will be raised--I always try to make the bets myself that I'll have to call anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that you should bet yourself if you’d call a bet anyway, but I wasn’t planning to call; I was prepared to fold.
What changed matters was that seat 6 suddenly bet (God only knows…). If he had checked and seat 7 had bet I would have had to fold, because I can’t be sure enough that seat 6 is going to call again. (Maybe I could be at higher limits, btw. If he isn’t crazy, he should have trips here, so there’s no way he’s folding. At 2/4 though, I wouldn’t be amazed if he called on 4th with next to nothing only to find a fold on 5th).


[ QUOTE ]
This is a case where the fact that it's probably mathematically correct to chase and hope to fill up might be hurting you. If it weren't correct to chase, the best play would be to bet out on 5th and fold to a raise. Instead you have to spend two bets calling to chase, assuming that you need to fill to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

What you are talking about is firing another bet for information, and then folding if he tells me he has aces up by raising, right?
I see two problems with this:
a) He won’t raise, unless he just made a boat or quads. He has to be concerned about trip queens. In fact, if I had somehow gotten myself into this mess, I wouldn’t be raising either.
b) I don’t need that information. I’m already sure enough that he has aces up to fold. Unless, of course, I’m getting the odds to call for the boat…

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Next, some math.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope I entered this correctly, but I just wanted to see for myself what twodimes would show...

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1244890
pokenum -7s kh ks qs qc th 7c 6s - ad js jc 5c / ah 2d 9d 8c ts 7d 3d 6d 5s 9c
7-card Stud Hi: 26970 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Qs 6s Qc 7c Kh Th 16980 62.96 9990 37.04 0 0.00 0.630
Js Jc 5c Ad 9990 37.04 16980 62.96 0 0.00 0.370

[/ QUOTE ]

What’s this? Kings up vs. Jacks with an ace kicker?
I don’t get it… [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Next, some math. I have seen 21 cards which leaves 31, two of which are aces. So there are 29*2 ways he can have an ace in the hole, or 58 ways. (Did I get this right?)

[/ QUOTE ]

59 ways, you forgot AA in the hole.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct (although, I think he’d slow play that a little).
Doesn’t change much though…

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're saying that he will NEVER have a starting hand other than pocket QQ, KK or split aces to call your double bet on fourth here. If that is true, your fold is correct.



[/ QUOTE ]

How so? If he has pocket KK or QQ than OP wins the hand with KKQQ vs. KKJJ or QQJJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, those are the two times I win.
The other 58 times he will have aces up and I lose. Thus, the odds are 58:2 or 29:1 against me winning. I win this only 3.4% of the time (if my assumptions about his calling range are correct).