Is this really correct?

[Roland]

Once again, inspired by grbs post and Jons math.
Seat 7 is a regular and semi-solid. Meaning that he has to have aces or trip jacks to call me on 4th. The other guy is obviously an idiot, and since he stuck around, I thought I’d stick too…
Good?



7 Card Stud High ($2/$4), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.88 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 8: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street - (6.38 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___double bets
Seat 6: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

5th Street - (6.19 BB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (9.19 BB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

River - (12.19 BB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___checks___folds
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___bets

Total pot: (12.19 BB)

[jon_1van]

I don't like the river fold here.

Seat 6's 5th, and 6th street actions don't mesh. So I make a donk crying call expection to lose to AAJJ but hoping to beat some pocket pair and JJ

[MRBAA]

Yeah, bad fold in a decent sized pot. You really think you won't win this 1 in 10 times?

[dandy_don]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the river fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just couldn't fold with K's up for one more bet at a 13BB pot.

[BTirish]

I don't like it, but I think you have to pay off on the river. Q-Q-A-J-J is another possibility for your opponent--he's played this pretty cautiously.

I'm not sure that I like checking on 5th, but it's close. I'm pretty aggressive, so I rarely like giving up the lead on the betting unless I'm pretty sure that I will be raised--I always try to make the bets myself that I'll have to call anyways.

This is a case where the fact that it's probably mathematically correct to chase and hope to fill up might be hurting you. If it weren't correct to chase, the best play would be to bet out on 5th and fold to a raise. Instead you have to spend two bets calling to chase, assuming that you need to fill to win. I still like value calling on the river.

[PoorLawyer]

I would bet 5th and see if he raises you before I get too concerned. he very well could have aces but he also could have KK or QQ also or an open-ender that he is sticking in with since the guy in between already called. Maybe he had a rough day at work and is just out of line. You could very well be behind but I would still try to keep control of the betting based on your board.

I don't think I could fold the river either with that size pot. I don't think your hand has to be good all that often here.

[BeerMoney]

Fold 5th.

[Roland]

Okay, since nobody likes my river fold, I’ll try to explain…

First, my opponent. I’ve played him quite a bit. Although he is way too passive in some spots and way too loose in others (like here), I haven’t ever seen him do anything really stupid (like calling with gutshot or under pair on 4th in this hand). I’d say he’s a solid winner at this limit.
He MAY call here with queens. It’s a stretch, but for the sake of discussion, lets say he calls. He almost certainly calls with kings and of course with aces. So, unless he suddenly and mysteriously went crazy, he has either QQ, KK or Ax in the hole.
Next, some math. I have seen 21 cards which leaves 31, two of which are aces. So there are 29*2 ways he can have an ace in the hole, or 58 ways. (Did I get this right?). So it’s 58:2 or 29:1 against me winning. Getting only 12:1, I can’t call this, no?

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
Next, some math. I have seen 21 cards which leaves 31, two of which are aces. So there are 29*2 ways he can have an ace in the hole, or 58 ways. (Did I get this right?). So it’s 58:2 or 29:1 against me winning. Getting only 12:1, I can’t call this, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

this doesn't seem quite right because it doesn't account for the times when he has KK or QQ, or is that the :2 in 58:2? I used to be pretty good at math, but high school itself is barely a memory...

This is the only math I can figure here: You have to be certain that he has aces at least 11 out of 12 times (about 92% sure) to fold here. Can you ever be that sure about something in this game, especially at those limits? Granted, you have a good read on the guy, so it may be close

[MRBAA]

But your opponent has given you much information during the play of the hand, so this is not a question of abstract odds alone. You're saying that he will NEVER have a starting hand other than pocket QQ, KK or split aces to call your double bet on fourth here. If that is true, your fold is correct. You know this player, we don't.

However, against most players they can have any live pocket pair to call your raise on fourth if they don't believe you have trips. Or a big three flush that paired jacks on fourth. If you assign any probability to those hands, you may have a call here.