Tough River Decision #3

[Roland]

My opponent is super loose-passive. He has been playing 90% of his hands, but I never saw him complete on 3rd. Typical calling-station.


7 Card Stud High ($2/$4), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.88 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 4: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 8: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (3.88 SB)

Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (3.44 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (5.44 BB)

Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

River - (7.44 BB)

Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___checks___raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets___
Total pot: (11.44 BB)

[sexdrugsmoney]

Curious you didn't fold when he paired his door card.

You told me that trips vs 2 pair was yuck. (but I know it's hard to lay em down)

I'd call that raise on the river, but that's why I have no roll.

I don't like to think anyone is getting "cute" and that's what it is, either he's got a busted flush with only queens, queens up, trip queens, or a boat. (I'm betting a boat)

Sucks. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
Curious you didn't fold when he paired his door card.

[/ QUOTE ]


Because he was playing almost every hand, and because one queen was dead, the chance that he has trip queens are very, very small.

[ QUOTE ]
You told me that trips vs 2 pair was yuck. (but I know it's hard to lay em down)

[/ QUOTE ]

If I had king up and he made open ACES, I would lay down. Here though, I can beat queens up, so it’s much better. If, say, he raised on 3rd and queens were live, I would have to consider folding.

[beta1607]

I think it is close against an unknown but given your read, there is noway you are ahead here 10% of the time. Passive calling stations dont bet all that often, let alone checkraise - that is way too much agression for him to not have the goods.

[greenage]

Have you seen him raise before at all?

There is a question to be answered here. Did he catch the case Queen on Fifth or did he stumble onto trips/FH on the River. That would seem to be worth one BB.

Do you think people play you a little differently because you don't pay off, at least not before the river?

Tough to lay down two higher pair, but it looks that you are beat. Fold. Use the $4 to buy a couple of slices.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you seen him raise before at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don’t think so.


[ QUOTE ]
There is a question to be answered here. Did he catch the case Queen on Fifth or did he stumble onto trips/FH on the River. That would seem to be worth one BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, against better players, calling for information can be worth that one big bet I guess. But I don’t think finding out that he rivered me will save/make me any $$$ in the future - even if I find out that he check-called on 5th and 6th with trips, that will hardly keep me from slowing down against him in similar spots in later hands; even if he had trips in this hand, most of the time he won’t have them, simply because he plays so many hands. Thus, betting in these spots will be +EV.
Like I said though, if he played less predictably or was tricky, you would have a point.


[ QUOTE ]
Do you think people play you a little differently because you don't pay off, at least not before the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

People who pay attention, sure. I don’t think this guy was, though. I doubt most people are.

[Roland]

Well, I called. He started with Kh7h in the hole and hit the case queen on the river.

[greenage]

Well, now you know he can raise. I feel better knowing you weren't slow-played. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel better knowing you weren't slow-played. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]


Uhm, well, blumpkin just pointed out to me that I can’t know this for sure. He could shuffle show after all. But the way he played it combined with the fact that he is obviously clueless and couldn’t care less about whether anyone sees what he started with make me think that he rivered me.