QQ on a dangerous flop, and an all in

[ QUOTE ]
Im suprised everyone said fold. I thought it was quite obvious villain was bluffing trying to represent the J. Theres no way he would push like that if he had the J. He wouldnt bet the K that hard in fear of the J, even AA. I called anyway, villain had A10.

P.S Players do this kind of move all the time with low pp's aswell.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should definitely rethink this analysis. This call on the flop is not a winning proposition long term. The large majority of the time you make this call, your opponent will show you the winner. You happened to be right this time, but I don't think that makes it the correct call.

P.S. your post was extremely vague as you did not state the relevant stack sizes or the stakes. This makes it more difficult to give you our opinions.

[rikz]

Since this is an all in on the flop, this is a question of pot odds and reads. Without a read, it is just the odds. So, you have to call 36 to win 62. If you are ahead of a random villain on this flop more than 58% of the time, then calling is +EV.

AA is possible, but unlikely since he probably would have kept escalating the raising preflop unless he is tricky. However, KK could have called specifically to keep a hand like AK and QQ around longer. A tricky player with AA might do the same. I think the most likely hands for a reasonable villain are:

AA trying to trap 5%
AK 35%
KK trying to trap if no A falls on flop 15%
QQ 1%
JJ 1%
TT 10%
99 10%
AQs 5%
AJs 5%
ATs 5%
Low Pocket Pair 5%
Suited connectors and 1 gappers with a J (KsJs, JsTs, etc) 2%
Other ATCs 1%
Total 100%

Without a read to change these estimates, you are ahead of

TT 10%
99 10%
AQs 5%
ATs 5%
Low Pocket Pair 5%
Other ATCs 1%
Total 36%

So, with QQ versus a random villain pushing into a preflop reraiser with a JJK flop, you just don't have the pot odds to call. Remember, he's got to put you on a premium pair or AK. So, that might actually increase the chance that he has a J or a big K and be hoping for a call. Now, if you felt that he had a read on you that YOU would be in this spot with AT or a low pocket pair, then maybe you can call with QQ because you could expect him to try and buy this pot off you. However, if you don't have a read on him, how can you expect him to have that kind of read on you?

So, in general, I think a fold is +EV and a call is -EV versus a random villain.

[quarkncover]

[ QUOTE ]

So, with QQ versus a random villain pushing into a preflop reraiser with a JJK flop, you just don't have the pot odds to call. Remember, he's got to put you on a premium pair or AK. So, that might actually increase the chance that he has a J or a big K and be hoping for a call. Now, if you felt that he had a read on you that YOU would be in this spot with AT or a low pocket pair, then maybe you can call with QQ because you could expect him to try and buy this pot off you. However, if you don't have a read on him, how can you expect him to have that kind of read on you?

So, in general, I think a fold is +EV and a call is -EV versus a random villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well articulated Albert Moulton NH.

~Quarkncover

[pokerjoker]

Routine fold. Just take ur money here and be happy u lucked out, dont let something like this hurt your game IMO.

[brian94709]

umm, you can never require to be ahead more than 50% of the time to call an all in. (unless you factor in the rake :P)

let
L = amount you can lose
W = amount you can win
x = prob of winning.

xW - (1-x)L = EV

EV=0 => (W + L)x = L

so your EV is greater than 0 when your prob of winning is at least

L/(L+W) which in this case is about 36%.

Not that that makes this a call anyway [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]... I think your estimates for Villains chances to be bluffing are a bit too high as well.

[nWirb]

[ QUOTE ]
Since this is an all in on the flop, this is a question of pot odds and reads. Without a read, it is just the odds. So, you have to call 36 to win 62. If you are ahead of a random villain on this flop more than 58% of the time, then calling is +EV.

AA is possible, but unlikely since he probably would have kept escalating the raising preflop unless he is tricky. However, KK could have called specifically to keep a hand like AK and QQ around longer. A tricky player with AA might do the same. I think the most likely hands for a reasonable villain are:

AA trying to trap 5%
AK 35%
KK trying to trap if no A falls on flop 15%
QQ 1%
JJ 1%
TT 10%
99 10%
AQs 5%
AJs 5%
ATs 5%
Low Pocket Pair 5%
Suited connectors and 1 gappers with a J (KsJs, JsTs, etc) 2%
Other ATCs 1%
Total 100%

Without a read to change these estimates, you are ahead of

TT 10%
99 10%
AQs 5%
ATs 5%
Low Pocket Pair 5%
Other ATCs 1%
Total 36%

So, with QQ versus a random villain pushing into a preflop reraiser with a JJK flop, you just don't have the pot odds to call. Remember, he's got to put you on a premium pair or AK. So, that might actually increase the chance that he has a J or a big K and be hoping for a call. Now, if you felt that he had a read on you that YOU would be in this spot with AT or a low pocket pair, then maybe you can call with QQ because you could expect him to try and buy this pot off you. However, if you don't have a read on him, how can you expect him to have that kind of read on you?

So, in general, I think a fold is +EV and a call is -EV versus a random villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make a point, and I don't think I wouldn't make this call with QQ, however, I don't think that more then maybe 5-10% of the average pp 50nl players would even understand this post.

[rikz]

Oops.

I didn't calculate the percentage right.

The rest is OK though.

You are absolutely right.

Thanks.

Given my analysis, this might me a neutral EV call. However, I'd fold since I was pretty generous with my estimates of villain bluffing or holding weak hands.

[Reef]

all you beat is a bluff. Maybe just maybe he has something like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but you can't call.

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]
all you beat is a bluff. Maybe just maybe he has something like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but you can't call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but once you start looking up these short stacks who make moves like this, you realize they are bluffing a large amount of the time.

i don't understand get your analysis. here's mine:

probability of Hero posting the hand if the ridiculous call didn't pay off: 0%

therefore, EV of posting is negative.