Updated Simulation of Biggest Buyin Drop Expected: 43 (15/14/13 ratio)

[Nicholasp27]

my previous code had gotten maximum negative value that the br could dip, which is basically risk of ruin because i made a fundamental mistake

i've revised it and it now gets the biggest drop over 10k tournaments...it simulates tournaments at a 15/14/13 ratio of 1/2/3 and then tracks the highest the br ever gets and then the furthest it ever gets from the current highest br, thus getting the largest dip, which would allow you to withdraw anything more than that amount of buyins whenver you want



after 10,000 simulations of 10,000 tourney sets, the largest drop was 43 buy-ins...thus if you have a 15/14/13 ACTUAL ratio, then you could deposit 44 buy-ins into your account and withdraw the extra whenever your account goes above that amount


example:
you are a 10+1 player, so you deposit 44*11=$484 into your account. You can now withdraw the extra anytime your account balance goes above $484, bringing the balance back to $484. So if you play for a living, you now know what bankroll you must keep in your account for poker and what winnings you can cash out for food/rent/fun

[eastbay]

Would would be more interesting is a table of drops and % likelihood in a stretch of 10k.

buy-in %
10: 92
20: 68
etc.

eastbay

[Nicholasp27]

so just track the count of each specific drop amount and return the % for each?


btw, 24.46 was the average drop for 1000 sims of 10k sets

[Nicholasp27]

yeah, a risk of ruin for when you withdraw the profits instead of leaving them in like the normal calculation

i'll run this later and do a table of %chance of losing X buyins with a/b/c ratio...i'll have it run for a variety of possible ratios

[Mr_J]

"i'll have it run for a variety of possible ratios"

How about just labelling ROIs, pretend 1st-3rd is evenly distributed or something. Could you also calculate it as if most or all profits are reinvested up to say a 100 buyin BR? Wouldn't mind knowing my chances of having a go at the $109s and "never looking back".

[Nicholasp27]

rois can be made up of different ratios and most people aren't even on 1/2/3...some are more aggressive on bubble and get more 1s than 2/3...some are just more aggressive once itm so get lots of 1/3 and not so many 2s...some suck hu so get lots of 2/3 but not so many 1s...etc


it's more comprehensive to give a large variety so anyone can look at their personal sngtracker(etc) results and see exactly what their ror is if they only keep X bankroll in account


i'm not sure i understand what u are asking with regards to the reinvesting...the standard risk of ruin on eastbay's excel file gives u the ror for 100 buyins assuming you keep the profits in your br and don't withdraw them

if u want something different, give me an example so i can see what u are talking about

[bones]

Nice work, but I'm still the sweet 16 master.

[Nicholasp27]

sounds like a challenge

[Mr_J]

"rois can be made up of different ratios and most people aren't even on 1/2/3"

I understand this, but hardly anyone will have a 15/14/13 ratio, thats 42% ITM for 31% ROI!!! How much does variance increase for 40% ITM vs 38% ITM but both at the same ROI??

"it's more comprehensive to give a large variety so anyone can look at their personal sngtracker(etc) results and see exactly what their ror is if they only keep X bankroll in account"

Yeh that'd work [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

"i'm not sure i understand what u are asking with regards to the reinvesting..."

Eg what would my ROR over my first 1000 sngs be if I started with a BR of 25 buyins, never withdraw profits and hit 10% ROI at 36% ITM.

[Nicholasp27]

oh ok

that's what my original function did..it got the lowest point the br dropped from the original br in 10,000 sngs...with 15/14/13 it was 23 or something

u can use aleo's to get 13.33% ror with 36.25%itm/10.333%roi, but that's ror EVER, not for 1000 tournies