What the...?

[marbles]

online game last night. Very loose-passive preflop (5-6 seeing unraised flops), but aggressive/tricky postflop.

I get QJo in the SB and complete after 4 limpers. BB checks, 6 to the flop.

Flop: J72, with 2 clubs (I have the Qc). I check, second-to-last guy bets, button calls, I checkraise. Two coldcallers, initial better calls, button RERAISES. I call, others call.

Turn is a blank (offsuit 5 IIRC). Checked to the button who bets, I call, one other caller.

River pairs the 2, no flushes. Final board: J7522. Checked to the button, I call, third guy folds.

Misplayed on every street? What do you put the button on? Results on next post, but NO PEEKING!

[marbles]

Button shows down red aces to scoop. Are you surprised? What do you think of his play?

[bernie]

i think he played it fine....you payed him off didnt you? i think he ran a great variation play on the table...

b

[marbles]

Of course I paid him off, but I still can't imagine I'd ever do the same thing in that game. Not raising the button preflop and then not raising a flush-draw board on the flop was gamblin'. If I ever tried it, I guarantee the turn and river would be baby clubs, and my monitor would be through the window and in the yard.

[Homer]

The button could have had:

1) Set
2) Big flush draw
3) Tptk or overpair (played kind of strangely if so)

On the flop, you are getting 20:1 odds to call (assuming the others call behind you), so I think you have to call on the chance that the button has an overpair or a flush draw. If he has a set, you are drawing nearly dead, but the odds are too good to pass up seeing the turn.

Your effective odds are around 6:1 for calling the button down on the turn and river. I think it is close, but is a fold. In my mind, the button has set/big flush draw/overpair at 70%/20%/10% likelihood. So, 70% of the time you are drawing dead, of the 20% of the time the button has a big flush draw, you will win around 2/3 of the time (13.3%), and of the 10% of the time the button has an overpair, you will win around 1/9 of the time (1.1%). So, in all, you will win 14.5% of the time, if you were heads-up against the button, making calling down about equivalent to folding. However, there is a third player in the hand who may already have you outkicked, or if doesn't and is behind, has a chance to catch up on the turn/river. This in my mind turns a possible call (and it would be thin to start with) to a fold.

During the heat of battle, my thought process would be that I need to be good 1/7 times for calling down to be proper. I will beat the button about 15% of the time (2/3 of the 20-25% of the time he is on a big flush draw), which suggests I should possibly call it down. However, the presence of a third player yet to act, who coldcalled the flop (and could have a big hand or at least a hand better than mine), changes my possible call to a fold.

-- Homer

[Punker]

I think you should bet the flop. The presence of two clubs on the flop increases the chance that it will be raised and you will be able to 3-bet. Then its just a question of if you have the best hand or not.

On the turn, the nature of the board and the action on the flop indicates that you are probably up against a made hand and a flush draw. You should probably fold here, but it's easy to say. I probably call down and feel like an idiot when I am shown 77 or AJ or whatever.

[Punker]

Players who play aces this way tend to play them this way regardless of the situation and the flop and the turn.

Remember...all he knows at the point of his call on the flop is that everyone has checked to the guy in front of him, who has bet. His play isn't too bad in this instance, as from his perspective, he is possibly going to be headsup against a hand that should either be a flush draw or top pair, both of which are likely to bet the turn again if they bet the flop. If he's going to be headsup and can punish his opponent with a turn raise, why not try it?

Additional players entering the hand probably don't hurt him as much on the flop as they likely have 5 outs or less if they continue play. This also assumes he's capable of putting down the aces on the turn if action dictates.

[Homer]

I like the checkraise because of the importance of eliminating overcards when holding top-pair with a hand that can easily be surpassed, such as Jacks. Checkraising will give a pair of Jacks a much better chance of holding up than betting and three-betting. By betting and three-betting, you build a huge pot, but the probability of winning it decreases so much so that it has a EV lower than that of checkraising. In other words, if checkraised, the pot size will be x and the probability of winning will be y. By betting and three-betting, the pot size will be 2x (for example), but the probability of winning will be less than y/2. I have no proof that this is true, but I feel that it is right (which of course means that I am open to discussion).

-- Homer

[marbles]

I'm in full agreement with you there. If I have AJ, betting and reraising has more merit, but in this situation, I was checkraising all the way.

[marbles]

"dditional players entering the hand probably don't hurt him as much on the flop as they likely have 5 outs or less if they continue play."

--This is exactly where I figure he's in trouble. Sure, I never had more than 5 outs, but that's just MY hand. There may also be a guy out there with a 7 (5 more outs), and/or a guy with clubs (8-9 more outs), and who knows, maybe a gutshot draw (4 more outs). Collectively, the field is hot on his tail; he needs to knock people out and/or punish their draws.