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#1
06-25-2005, 06:52 PM
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how not to do it, by elysium.
hi everyone,
live 10-20; non-bluffing regulars who like to call a little too much, a few good players, etc. i have KK in the SB, and raise an 8-way. the flop comes Q72 monotone none suit. i betout, it's called in 3 spots, the MP raises, and it's cold-called in two spots to me. i fold. my thinking at the time was that i would need perfect, perfect to win, and that even if the MP didn't have the flush, one of the callers on my left did. added to this was the possibility of the fourth flush card landing on either the turn or the river, and that the calling station type players on my left would not fold with any flush draw if i reraised either on the flop, or a check-raise of the turn. well, on the showdown, of course my KK would have been good. in retrospect, i should have put the MP on a raise with the lone A suit at a greater frequency than i initially did. i just didn't think he was making this type a raise enough times to warrant a reraise. what caused me to fold, however, was the large field of calling station types on my right and left, who i thought might be calling with a completed lower flush. and i knew hat the fourth flush card landing would not allow me to foldout any hand that i was trailing. so i folded. my main mistake, i think, was in betting out. i betout to make the draws pay, but against this many in the field, that was wrong, IMO after the fact. my best chance of taking down this pot would have been to check-raise the A of suit, allowing the A of suit to initiate the action. i just never really thought this one through before, and that thought never occurred to me at the table. now though, that is what i should have done. my betout actually cost me the pot because, while it does make the draws pays, betting out in this spot provides your thinking opponent who likes to get fancy with ammo that backfires on you when he makes a fancy play. it's better to check and wait to see what happens, and that's what i should have done. all comments appreciated. 
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#3
06-25-2005, 07:30 PM
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Re: how not to do it, by elysium.
interesting post although i cringed when you wrote "i folded" on the flop.
i think its not a bad idea to call the flop raise and bet the turn since people w/ K/A of the suit can raise pretty clearly. if it was a faily passive game and you bet and it was called in 2 spots then raised and rereaised i think thats a fold. but here im seeing a non spade showdown in all likelihood. had you not written that you folded i never would have even considered it an option. as to a flop checkraise, it depends where you think the A would be...since ealy position limipers tend to be tighter than late position limpers i'd lay odds (albeit slim ones) that the As, if out there, would be in the early limper's hands (the "if out there" is a qeustion in and of itself though since the pot was unraised till it got to you unless its a very passive game). so the C'R idea isn't too good IMO unless you KNOW for some reason that the As is to your right somehow. also, checking isn't too great b/c you may feel the need to fold for 2 back if its bet and raised where yous hould probably 3 bet...but i wouldn't want to put 3 bets here on this flop. against the limpers and the raises though, after you bet, you should definately call and its easy to give up when and if the spade hits. -Barron
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#4
06-25-2005, 07:30 PM
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Re: how not to do it, by elysium.
[ QUOTE ]
Where or how do you draw the line that helps you to decide when betting this flop is correct, and when checking and waiting to see is correct? [/ QUOTE ] where the As is likely to be. -Barron
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#5
06-25-2005, 07:41 PM
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Re: how not to do it, by elysium.
I often hear people say that they'll "bet to see where they're at". At first it sounded like a good idea, and then I read something from TJ Cloutier that said "if I wanna know where i'm at, I check and see what happens". I tried that too, it works much better, at least for me.
I really like you anaylsis of the hand, and wonder if, even though you would have won a showdown, your fold was still correct. I'm not very good at advanced poker math, but isn't this one of those "reverse implied odds" situations? You may already be beat, and the chance of you ending up with the best hand in an 8 way field with that board can't be very high. I don't know how to work the numbers, maybe somebody thats advanced w/ pokerstove can figure it out, but i'm thinking that if your fold was wrong, it probably wasn't wrong by much. Nice hand. lf
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#8
06-25-2005, 09:41 PM
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Re: how not to do it, by elysium.
The problem with checking is someone with a Q may bet out where he may have just called your bet had you lead out, then when the A of suit raises I think you need to fold rather than call 2 cold. If it were me, I would bet out, call the raise and call 1 more bet on each street unless the 4th flush card came versus these types of opponenets. Calling the flop, leading the turn and folding to a raise may be good too. In my typical online game, I 3-bet the flop and lead the turn.
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#9
06-26-2005, 12:33 AM
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Re: how not to do it, by elysium.
[ QUOTE ]
This is definitely not a good fold. Now if it was 8-9-10 monotone then i think we have something to talk about. [/ QUOTE ] I find your statement of "what" interesting...where's the why? lf
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#10
06-26-2005, 01:01 AM
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Re: how not to do it, by elysium.
hi roy
having betout on the flop, 3-betting would have been the better choice. the main reason i folded was that i just couldn't envision this 'ol regular type player in the MP raising in this particular game, against this calling style field. the MP wound up getting called in 2 spots by middle pair and Q weak kicker, both of whom never thought of laying it down. furthermore, you had to see the raise. he raised like he was raising with the nuts. but no. my biggest error was not checking and going for the flop check-raise, which i would have certainly done. it was a huge costly error on my part, and the only real bad play of my trip. it wasn't so much that i got outplayed, it was more like i provided the ammo without which my opponent couldn't have outplayed me in the first place. this field, up to that point, had been so predictible that rather than making the draws pay, i should have simply checked and waited to see what happened.
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