Devil Rays +325

Vince Young · #1 06-21-2005, 12:50 AM

Any value in this line? Nomo is 2-0 against the Yankees this year.

humdinger · #2 06-21-2005, 01:38 AM

Doesn't your sentence answer your question?

HD

mrbaseball · #3 06-21-2005, 06:14 PM

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Any value in this line?

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There is almost alwats value in a line this big. I have fair value around +-220 with the Yankees favored so there is plenty of value for TB. I just got some at +340!

But what I really like is the runline. TB is +1.5 at +164. This is huge! In Johnsons 14 starts NY is only 7-7 when giving the runs. Getting the runs TB with Nomo is 9-5. Plus Nomo already won this headsup match earlier and as you state TB won both his NY starts this year.

The Yankees should win. But they shouldn't win the 78% of the time this line says they should. It's more like 68% for some nice edge. And if they manage to cover the runline they need to do that 62% of the time to break even and I don't even give them a 50% shot to do that.

Johnson is far superior to Nomo but do you really want to bet on him? If you bet one unit every time Johnson pitched this season you would be down 5.1 units betting on him. If you bet one unit on Nomo every time he pitched you would be up 1.45 units. Which guy do you think is the better bet tonight?

Like I said the Yankees should win but in no way at the frequency this line suggests. The ball bounces real funny sometimes. Only a fool lays the wood here. Luckily there are lots of fools so we get whacked out lines like this one.