Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > PL/NL Texas Hold'em > Small Stakes Pot-, No-Limit Hold'em

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-21-2005, 02:11 PM
KC50 KC50 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: the Burbs of KC
Posts: 112
Default What are the odds?

Here's a good one for y'all I saw last night in our card room.

$200 max buyin NL...blinds $2 and $5.

Stacks

Player A has table covered

Player B apprx $230

Player C apprx $304

Player A raises 1st in from EP to $35

Player B re-raises to $150 and Player C pushes for $304.

Player A hem haws for about a minute and a half then calls.

Player B calls his last $80.

Player A: QQ

Player B: KK

Player C: AA

I think this is an easy laydown for Player A with QQ. He's only in for $35 and is facing a raise and an allin re-raise...which reaks of AA!)...

I think Player B's call is correct for his last $80.

What are the odds for these top 3 premiums all in the same hand...221 to the 3rd power? That's approximatley 11 million to one!

KC

P.S. Oh and btw. Flop comes Axx with 2 spades. No one has a spade. Turn is a deuce and it's over, the aces hold up.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 05-21-2005, 03:16 PM
BZ_Zorro BZ_Zorro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: $100 NL
Posts: 612
Default Re: What are the odds?

[ QUOTE ]
What are the odds for these top 3 premiums all in the same hand...

[/ QUOTE ]
The odds are closer to this:
Probability of a particular pocket pair (say AA): 0.45%

So, the probability of AA,KK and QQ in any particular hand (10 players) is
(.0045*10)x(0.0045*9)x(.0045*8) ~= 1 in 15241 hands

Which is still pretty rare, and still just as funny.

This is approximate, the probability is actually somewhat better. Maybe someone wants to do the math properly.

If someone already has AA, the probability of someone having KK and another having QQ is approx 1 in 680.

The probability of someone having AA when you have KK is about 1 in 25.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 05-21-2005, 03:31 PM
meleader2 meleader2 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Women are truly -EV
Posts: 320
Default Re: What are the odds?

i don't think the QQ is a bad call if the players are loose aggressive. of course this is all situation based.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 05-21-2005, 05:47 PM
KC50 KC50 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: the Burbs of KC
Posts: 112
Default Re: What are the odds?

Sorry, forgot to mention that:

Player A(QQ): loose aggressive
Player B(KK) tight aggressive

Player C(AA) tight passive

That's why player A had a easy laydown IMO.

However being the loose aggressive player that he is, is also what prompted him to call (gamble)...he saw the prize but didn't see he was the bait.

KC
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 05-21-2005, 08:17 PM
KC50 KC50 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: the Burbs of KC
Posts: 112
Default Re: What are the odds?

If someone already has AA, the probability of someone having KK and another having QQ is approx 1 in 680.

Not sure about this....but

The probability of someone having AA when you have KK is about 1 in 25.


This is 44:1 (provided by a Q & A on the WPT telecast last week at the Legends of Poker).

KC
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 05-22-2005, 12:59 AM
BZ_Zorro BZ_Zorro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: $100 NL
Posts: 612
Default Re: What are the odds?

[ QUOTE ]
>The probability of someone having AA when you have KK is about 1 in 25.

This is 44:1 (provided by a Q & A on the WPT telecast last week at the Legends of Poker).

[/ QUOTE ]
This figure might be for 6 handed play, which is usually what they show on WPT.

I had a look around to see if someone had done the maths ( never really listened in probability lectures anyway - ugh), and came across this post (scroll to bottom of page) at the ITH forum. Also see this if you're interested.

Basically, the probability in a 10 handed game is 4.39%, or ~1 in 22.

As noted, the math was approximate, and my numbers were a little high. And I stand by the other numbers, though again the prob. is slightly better than that.

Didn't mean to hijack your post but I thought a correction was needed.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:24 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.