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  #1  
Old 01-31-2005, 01:30 PM
nicky g nicky g is offline
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Default Thoughts on the election

Firstly, the elections were broadly a positive development. In many ways they were farcical, and they were very poorly timed, but they were better than no election at all.

Some thoughts, however:

- The turnout figures are simple guesses, and ones that are probably too high (made by people who admitted that they were making them in the context of their own excitement and enthusiasm for the elections).

- In conjunction with the Iraqi Electoral Commission, the elections were largely organised by the UN. Why no plaudits for them from the rightists whooping and hollering about this great success for democracy?

- Was the election held because of, or in spite of, the efforts of Bush et al? This site (linked to from www.juancole.com) argues that it was Sistani that forced the administration to hold proper elections that they tried their hardest to avoid.

The elections Bush didn't want

- Election or not, Iraq is still a huge mess.

I had more, but I think I'll go home instead.

Still, let's hope for more positive developments, with the caveat that they aren't used to justify further military adventures.
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  #2  
Old 01-31-2005, 01:44 PM
adios adios is offline
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Default Re: Thoughts on the election

First point is vague. What specific estimates are you referring to?

Second point is ok.

Third point is baloney. The U.S. trained Iraqi forces and were integral in providing security. Bush has been consistent with his keeping the election timetable since it was established.

Fourth point define "mess" for me and what would constitute on "non messy Iraq.
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  #3  
Old 01-31-2005, 01:45 PM
MMMMMM MMMMMM is offline
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Default Re: Thoughts on the election

[ QUOTE ]
Still, let's hope for more positive developments, with the caveat that they aren't used to justify further military adventures.

[/ QUOTE ]

If in a few years it looks like it worked in Iraq, I'd like to see it tried in Iran, too. Military or otherwise.

Down with the tyrants!!!
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  #4  
Old 01-31-2005, 01:50 PM
Koller Koller is offline
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Default Re: Thoughts on the election

[ QUOTE ]
Down with the tyrants!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Bush is next.
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  #5  
Old 01-31-2005, 03:01 PM
nicky g nicky g is offline
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Default Re: Thoughts on the election

F"irst point is vague. What specific estimates are you referring to?"

The currennt estimates being bandied about are 60 percent of eligible voters, or about 8mn people. They're being talked about as fact when they people who came up with them , the Iraqi Electoral Commission, have admitted they are pure guesses.

"Third point is baloney. The U.S. trained Iraqi forces and were integral in providing security. Bush has been consistent with his keeping the election timetable since it was established."

Sorry, but that point about the security forces is baloney. The US forces can provide much better security than they can, and only around 12.000 are fully trained. Furthermore the security situation is much worse now than it was when Sistani first called for elections. Bush's electoral timetable is fairly recent, and it's true that plans have changed. One point I thought was interesting is that the US initially claimed they couldn't run early elections because the registration system Sistani suggested - using ration cards as the basis for electoral rolls - was unfeasible; yet in the end that's exactly what they did. I'm not saying the guy is right, but I'm not convinced by your refutation of his points. Which parts of his timeline specifically are you saying are untrue?
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  #6  
Old 01-31-2005, 03:08 PM
Utah Utah is offline
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Default Re: Thoughts on the election

I think this is just such a huge success for Iraq, regardless of some of the remaining issues.

Why is there a need for a "yes, but there are problems....." approach. Cant a victory simply be enjoyed for a moment without the negativism.

For example, when my little company has a big sale we dont all sit around and talk about how are logistics suck, the customer might leave in the future, and the sale is going to put short term pressure on cash flows. We simply enjoy the victory.
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  #7  
Old 01-31-2005, 03:10 PM
MtSmalls MtSmalls is offline
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Default Re: Thoughts on the election

The turnout numbers are going to have to be seriously revised. In Ramadi and Fallujah, turn out was less than 1/2 of 1% (about 15000 of an estimated 600,000). Which answers the question about the election being a farce.

Second, there were no candidates in this election, just lists. You had to vote for all of the 220 candidates on one list or all of them on another. The people of the country had NO input on the construction of any of the lists. Doesn't sound like a great election, but a step forward I guess. It was held because Bush needed something to crow about during his SOTU address on Wed.

Iraq is still a mess because: There is no police force in any of the major cities, outside of the US Military. Running water and electricity are infrequent at best (outside the Green zone) and non-existent for most. Iraqi citizens can't walk down the street without fearing for their lives. I would call that a mess.

For those of you interested, there were similar elections in Vietnam in 1967, which the US government hailed as a major step forward at that time, and a major victory over the terrorism of the VietCong. We know how that turned out.
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  #8  
Old 01-31-2005, 03:39 PM
jokerswild jokerswild is offline
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Default Re: Thoughts on the election

You really should quit calling for military action against the USA.
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  #9  
Old 01-31-2005, 04:53 PM
BCPVP BCPVP is offline
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Default Re: Thoughts on the election

1) Not gonna bother with the turnout figures. I'll wait for the dust to settle if everyone over there is gonna play guessing games.
2) I didn't know the U.N. was back in Iraq. They ran like whipped dogs with their tails tucked the moment there was a hint of violence pointed their way. I won't applaud the UN because the UN hasn't helped up until absolutely necessary so that the elections will be legitimate. UN gets a D minus from me.
4) Was the election held because/in spite of Bush? I don't know. I know one was held and that's what really matters in the end. Perhaps Bush et al were also wondering how the security situation would turn out and they may have been wanting to push this deadline further down the line, but I'm glad that didn't happen. The sooner the Iraqis start taking over the functions of their country, the better.
5) Iraq is a mess compared to whom? Europe was a pretty big mess after WWII as well. Cost us billions of dollars and millions of lives to get that mess solved. Compared to WWII, Iraq is in pristine condition.
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  #10  
Old 01-31-2005, 05:24 PM
MMMMMM MMMMMM is offline
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Default Re: Thoughts on the election

Down with the mad mullahs in Iran!!! Let freedom reign!!!
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