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  #11  
Old 09-16-2004, 04:11 PM
gergery gergery is offline
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Default Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?


HLederer and Men the Master have both said in the past they could easily fold KK preflop to big all-in raise. Obviously whether he would or not is another question depending on read,etc.

Raymer and Paul Phillips have both posted in the past that they would avoid slight favorite situations, but not be afraid to get money in if they were sure to be somewhat favorites (fossilman said 60-40 was good enough). Both have cited “I could be doing other valuable things like making money elsewhere” as the rationale.

It’s about $/hour, not $/tourney, and you still have to get lots of chips to make big $ yet.

--Greg
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  #12  
Old 09-16-2004, 04:58 PM
Paul Phillips Paul Phillips is offline
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Default Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?

[ QUOTE ]

HLederer and Men the Master have both said in the past they could easily fold KK preflop to big all-in raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most decent players would quickly fold KK to an all-in early in a 10K tournament unless the opponent had already been playing maniacally. However, this really doesn't come up.

[ QUOTE ]

Raymer and Paul Phillips have both posted in the past that they would avoid slight favorite situations, but not be afraid to get money in if they were sure to be somewhat favorites (fossilman said 60-40 was good enough).

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not what I've said. I've said I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker.

Incidentally, someone else was talking about 90% favorites being uncommon, and they're certainly right about that, but look what happened to me at the bike this year.
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  #13  
Old 09-16-2004, 05:00 PM
luckycharms luckycharms is offline
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Default Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?

A cashgame player myself, this boggles my mind. I mean, I can understand avoiding plays that were +EV, but still dangerous in a tournament situation, but those are only plays with a slight +EV. The cards won't always hit in a tournament, and you only have 200BB to start the WSOP, (and less in other tourneys) and eventually, if you don't get cards, it's down to 30BB, when you're at that point, you're going to be making a LOT of plays with probable -EV.

I may be wrong in saying this, but i BELIEVE that if I were a seasoned tourney pro and everyone at my table pushed all-in to me and I saw AA, I'd call, knowing I only have a 30% chance of winning (obviously assuming it's a multitable)

Would I be wrong?
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  #14  
Old 09-16-2004, 05:09 PM
Paul Phillips Paul Phillips is offline
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Default Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?

[ QUOTE ]
I may be wrong in saying this, but i BELIEVE that if I were a seasoned tourney pro and everyone at my table pushed all-in to me and I saw AA, I'd call, knowing I only have a 30% chance of winning (obviously assuming it's a multitable)

Would I be wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good to see the same threads that come up twice a month on rgp are here too!

Here's one among literally hundreds of other discussions on the same topic.
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  #15  
Old 09-16-2004, 05:30 PM
fnurt fnurt is offline
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Default Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?

What is amazing is not that these threads continually recur, but that no matter how many world-class players give the right answer, people still persist in these crazy beliefs that you should never risk your survival no matter how great the odds.

There is this myth that if you are a great player, you can breeze through an MTT by picking up small pots, getting involved in big pots only when you have the nuts, and so forth. "Myth" is probably the nicest word I could use for it. It's a shame this view is so prevalent, it really hurts the quality of discussions here sometimes.
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  #16  
Old 09-16-2004, 05:32 PM
jwvdcw jwvdcw is offline
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Default Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

HLederer and Men the Master have both said in the past they could easily fold KK preflop to big all-in raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most decent players would quickly fold KK to an all-in early in a 10K tournament unless the opponent had already been playing maniacally. However, this really doesn't come up.

[ QUOTE ]

Raymer and Paul Phillips have both posted in the past that they would avoid slight favorite situations, but not be afraid to get money in if they were sure to be somewhat favorites (fossilman said 60-40 was good enough).

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not what I've said. I've said I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker.

Incidentally, someone else was talking about 90% favorites being uncommon, and they're certainly right about that, but look what happened to me at the bike this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll take a 60% advantage, yet you'll fold KK to an early all in.

So pretty much if anyone goes all in early on in a tourney and you have no reads on him, then you think that he has aces 60+% of the time? This seems to not accurately reflect some of the aggression I've seen from the WSOP.
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  #17  
Old 09-16-2004, 05:33 PM
jwvdcw jwvdcw is offline
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Default Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?

[ QUOTE ]
A cashgame player myself, this boggles my mind. I mean, I can understand avoiding plays that were +EV, but still dangerous in a tournament situation, but those are only plays with a slight +EV. The cards won't always hit in a tournament, and you only have 200BB to start the WSOP, (and less in other tourneys) and eventually, if you don't get cards, it's down to 30BB, when you're at that point, you're going to be making a LOT of plays with probable -EV.

I may be wrong in saying this, but i BELIEVE that if I were a seasoned tourney pro and everyone at my table pushed all-in to me and I saw AA, I'd call, knowing I only have a 30% chance of winning (obviously assuming it's a multitable)

Would I be wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not clear on what you're saying here...are you saying that if your opponent had AA? If so, why on earth would you call?
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  #18  
Old 09-16-2004, 05:45 PM
gergery gergery is offline
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Default Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?

[ QUOTE ]

That's not what I've said. I've said I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker.


[/ QUOTE ]

I’ve discovered the secret of getting Paul to post more often here – simply misquote him!

Seriously, thanks for correcting the record. Actually, I remembered both you and Fossilman saying good side of coinflip (~53%)was good enough to take early on, but felt that would be putting even stronger words in your mouth than hedging to 60-40. Oops!

--Greg
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  #19  
Old 09-16-2004, 05:49 PM
TimTimSalabim TimTimSalabim is offline
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Default Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?

[ QUOTE ]
This is mathematically the right way to look at it, but there is no way any player in the universe is close to a 90% favorite to double up.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the increasing number of bad players in big tournaments, you could theoretically get to the point where a top player has a 90% chance of doubling his initial stack just by playing his normal game and not taking big gambles. I tend to agree, though, that no one is probably at that level currently. But I don't have any stats to prove it one way or the other, so that is why I gave my answer mathematically.
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  #20  
Old 09-16-2004, 08:49 PM
Jake (The Snake) Jake (The Snake) is offline
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Default Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?

Yes, I do not understand this concept either. In fact, I think the only time I would ever fold KK preflop would be when someone in EP calls, then moves all-in after a raise.
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