what i learned today by elysium

[elysium]

hi bob
the problem with the gut-shot is that it puts a straight on board when it completes. also, there are more river cards that can hurt you. in the case of the over-pair with a pair on board, and bob that's the only hand were considering for the call of 2 cold (the call closing the action of course, or capping it). the cold-call doesn't seem to have merit in any other case, including those times there is an over-card to your pocket pair on the paired board. there is nothing written about this one single instance, but i think i'm right.

[bobgreen]

Remember, I postulated that my opponents know I would not chase the gutshot and they will keep raising the turn. I hold QJ; the flop is A T 4r; the turn is K. They will cap the turn. If they both have AK, they have two outs on the river. If it is AK vs AT they have five outs. If it is AK vs TTT, they have eight outs. If it is AAA vs TTT, they have eight outs.

I guess I have a backdoor flush and got strung along on the flop for two bets. (The pot was pretty big already.) Now should I cold call two more on the flop? It looks like it.

[elysium]

hi bob
no, you should not cold-call. when you make your hand, it will put three to a braodway on board and slow your opponents down. also, if the board pairs on the river, you then will slow-down, even if in the lead.

[andyfox]

You're talking about a situation where you know exactly what your opponents have. This doesn't come up all that often. And you only "know" 3 of your opponents' 4 cards.

So your implied odds are close to the correct 23.5:1. That's still long odds and I still say those who keep calling cold to draw to long odds end up with short bankrolls, even if they're getting close to the best of it or even a bit of the best of it.

And many times all that flop action ends up check-check on the turn. The trips hand gets cute and figure the other guy will certainly bet his big pair and the big pair says wait a minute he's trapping me, I don't have to worry about an overcard because I have aces and there go your implied odds out the window. Or the aces get wise and belatedly figure out that his opponent may indeed have trips. Or the flop action is just so much posturing. Not that I'm questioning your reads here, just that it's not always a cinch that you're going to have them put oodles of money into the pot when you spike.

[elysium]

hi andy
that were discussing even an exception to a pretty substantial poker axiom 'that we never call 2 cold with a 2 outer' is a thing in itself. i mean, chit....were discussing it. well chit, ....dogonnit there's even some merit to what we are discussing, in my opinion. but i totally agree that the odds are so close, and the situation is delineated so narrowly that if this situation occurs more than once a month of regular sessions, that would be a lot. it's rare and clearly very exceptional. and there isn't another situation quite like it. and as far as i can tell, we're 'it' regarding any known discourse on this situation. and look at me, i just spelled 'regarding' with a u. and what other lierary mistakes am i making? maybe we shouldn't talk about this. this could be important. ehhh, poker pundits. let em poke. i say it's worth a call. literally and illiterately. here's why:

true andy, very true, the odds in this situation are razor thin. i also agree totally that the cold-call at most, if there were no other hands in the universe other than this cold-call of 2 on the flop, would at the most result in poker pennies hardly worth their weight in green stamps. but there is more at stake here than just this one hand. one in 22 or so times, this hand leaves you crawling for a handkerchief. but it has no effect on your opponents. granted andy, 21 in 22 times or so, you are a little smug about saving a big bet. but we do that all the time. it doesn't have any real effect on our game. so not calling never helps our game, but can, one in 22 times or so, really questioning our decision making abilities. and that hurts our game. the 21 in 22 times we save a big bet has no effect on us. when we fold, rather than call, even if we save a big bet, we still are losing the hand. yeah, you save a big bet, but you're not that elated, let me tell you. now look what happens when we call andy:

when we call, 21 out of 22 times, we lose a big bet. well, we were going to lose the pot anyway, and one more big bet doesn't have any real effect on our game. follow me here. one out of 22 times, when that fantastic spike happens, we look like and feel like champions. but more importantly, we look like champions before the whole table. and those who are in the hand with us are left questioning their poker prowess; clearly something that can send some on tilt and others weak tight. this is great for our game. huge wins andy build tremendous forward momentum. what does it mean? andy, i don't knoow. all i know is that when i don't make the cold-call, i save or lose pennies. the 21 in 22 times i save a big bet is off-set by the 1 in 22 times i miss out on a big pot equaling about 22 or 23 BB. when i don't call, not a single session ever receives an assist from a huge win. 1 in 22 times i don't call, i save a big bet but it never assists my session. the field never knows about it. but 1 in 22 times, not calling just causes me to question my decision making ability, and does have a negative effect on my session.

when i call:
21 in 22 times, i lose a big bet, but this has no effect on my session. but if i call, 1 in 22 times when i spike my 2 outer, not only do i receive a tremendous assist for my session, but my opponents are left questioning their poker decisions. my entire session for the whole night receives a tremendous boost. but when i call, not a single session is effected one way or the other.

what are the implied odds here? i have no idea. all i know is that if i make a play that has no negative or positive ev but it can never hurt me and only help me, albeit 1 in 22 times, and this means additional ev for the entire session because the weight of the effect of this call only scales positively, never negatively, then dogonnit, why not call ever time in this situation? there is absolutely nothing to lose, and everthing to gain!

think about what i'm saying here, because andy, what i'm lamenting mostly about after having folded isn't the lost pot, but rather the lost boost that this would have given my session. the lost momentum may have been as large as the pot andy. if it was, i'm getting implied odds of 44 to 1 on the call. in any event, my implied implied odds are greater than 23 or 22 to 1. that win would have carried over into the following session. i may have been able to retire.