I flop goot........but turn bad

[me454555]

Read on opponent is that he's not retarded

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6.00 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

So the 7 is a bad card for and I was afraid of a strait here or possible Ax higher 2 pair but I feel I shoulda raised here nonetheless. This will henceforth be known as mistake #1

River: (9.00 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Ok so once he checks I've gotta think my 2 pair is good here so I bet, but no I'm c/red? This smells like a better 2 pair but I feel I gotta call this b/c the pot is pretty big right?

Final Pot: 13.00 BB.

[W. Deranged]

1. I don't generally like this as a stealing hand because it doesn't have great top pair potential. Only steal with it if you think there's very low chance you'll get played with.

2. Flop is good.

3. The 7 really isn't that scary a card. Often this is just a picked up draw, a weirdly played A, a hand like A9, sometimes 87. Sometimes it's a monster but it's way to early to say that.

Proceed from there. Raising the turn makes the river much easier to play. Folding is obviously very hard on the river here. Put a read on and go with it. I'm inclined to call as 87 is possible, as is a bluff, as is just an A; remember it's a blind steal situation and so hand values get magnified.

[Nick C]

What a hand. I think I'd have to call on the river just to see what the hell SB had. The world's weirdest played QJ?

The turn call seems all right to me, really. You'd kind of think SB would go for a checkraise with A7 or J9, but maybe he's trying to bet/3-bet instead.

I guess after that didn't work, he decided to checkraise the river. I don't know if you're really good often enough on the river to call that checkraise, but this is one of those spots where I think I'd need to see what my opponent had.

I think you gotta raise the turn. Just because a straight is possible doesn't mean you should shut down.

As for the river....I'd call the raise. You're definitely losing most of the time, but with 12BB in the pot, I'm not folding 2pair for 1 more bet on the river.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
The 7 really isn't that scary a card. Often this is just a picked up draw, a weirdly played A, a hand like A9, sometimes 87. Sometimes it's a monster but it's way to early to say that.

[/ QUOTE ]

A9 does in fact seem pretty likely on the turn (and T9/98 should probably be considered as well).

I doubt SB has 87, though, since our read on him is that he's not retarded and he cold-called the flop.

Maybe I'm worried about J9 and A7 more than I should be, but those do both seem like flop cold-calling hands.