Huuuge River Overbet

[rocketlaunch]

Very loose, live 2/5NL game, $500 max buy-in. I'm a little under that at the moment, other people's stacks are all over the map. If anyone's been paying attention (this is a live 2/5 game, after all) my image is very tight, as I've barely played a hand in over an hour at the table.

UTG is a very loose player who plays 60-80% of his hands, so his range is really just about anything. However, after the flop he's normally pretty straight-forward--as much as I can tell in the time I've been there, every time he's bet, he's had the goods (even if it's goods made from Q2o). He has me covered.

I limp in the hijack with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] after a bunch of limpers. Seven people see a flop of:

J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

$34 in the pot. Checks to me, I bet $20. Folds around to UTG who calls, everyone else folds.

Turn ($72 in pot): (J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Check, check.

River ($72 in pot): (J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG bets $200. I...???

[rocketlaunch]

Someone must have an opinion. Or is this just such an obvious play? I'm a limit player trying to learn NL, so help is greatly appreciated.

[stu-unger]

in my experience when a donk overbets he has the nuts or close to it, so i vote fold. my guess is a slowplayed J that filled up at some point that just knows u will think he is bluffing... the only thing that makes this a little tougher is that both draws made it on the river and u are ahead of a large range of them.

[crosse91]

what j fills up here? J-4? j-3? j-2? limped from utg?

[stu-unger]

[ QUOTE ]
what j fills up here? J-4? j-3? j-2? limped from utg?

[/ QUOTE ]

i know it sounds retarded but this is a live game and in my experience, people will play just about anything from any postiion. the op seemed to describe villain this way too.

[rocketlaunch]

[ QUOTE ]
in my experience when a donk overbets he has the nuts or close to it, so i vote fold. my guess is a slowplayed J that filled up at some point that just knows u will think he is bluffing... the only thing that makes this a little tougher is that both draws made it on the river and u are ahead of a large range of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those were the competing lines of thought running through my head when he bet. Was he value-betting a FH, or did he just river a smaller flush or an improbable straight?

He hadn't made bets like that, at least that I've seen, without having a good hand. And he's been respecting the flush when it hits, etc.

The problem was that I think he may have viewed me as someone he could push around. And he very well could have just had a bare J, or made the straight, or had been on a flush draw himself.

I thought he would have been a bit more aggressive with just a J on the flop, so I had to discount that quite a bit, so having a J that just filled up actually seemed to be less likely than either having flopped a FH, or hitting his 33 or 22, or rivering a flush.

[rocketlaunch]

[ QUOTE ]
what j fills up here? J-4? j-3? j-2? limped from utg?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, he would definitely play hands like that from UTG. I mentioned this in the original description.

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is a very loose player who plays 60-80% of his hands, so his range is really just about anything. However, after the flop he's normally pretty straight-forward--as much as I can tell in the time I've been there, every time he's bet, he's had the goods (even if it's goods made from Q2o).

[/ QUOTE ]

[rocketlaunch]

Anyways, I ended up folding getting only 1.36:1, and figuring I probably ran into a flopped FH, with a turned or rivered full house also a possibility. The guy generally respected a flush that got there, so I guessed he was hoping I'd hit a flush and pay off an abnormally large value-bet.

The other possibilites were that he hit a flush as well (some of which could still beat me), or was just taking a stab at the pot with his A4 or whatever after I'd shown weakness. I just didn't think those possibilities were likely enough to warrant a call.

It's good to hear that people think an overbet like that is often someone with the nuts hoping for a call from someone who thinks they're bluffing. Makes me feel better about the fold.

FWIW, after the hand he claimed to only had a 4, despite the fact that I never saw him bluff-bet the river (cuz in this game, there's almost always a caller and he had it when betting time after time).

What do people think of the flop and turn play? Standard? I thought the flop bet was a little questionable, but given my tight image I figured I'd win the pot right there unless someone had a J.

[trumpman84]

I think I'd call here and not think twice for a couple of reasons.

1) You showed weakness on the turn...a lot of people would bluff here even if they aren't big bluffers, and I also notice that people who bluff in live games usually make a huge bet bigger than the size of the pot so they can brag about how they outplayed you.

2) Flush just came, he could of very well made a lower flush and is hoping for a call with his big bet. Since you said he plays any two there is a possibility of this.

3) I'm not saying this should be a basis for any call, but you made the hand you were drawing for, I think you have to call here.

4) He could very well be betting a jack here thinking it's good and not putting you on a flush draw.

I agree with the above. I personally think he had a jack since he did not show his hand and wanted to keep people thinking he is a little nuts. It is possible he made the boat but I think against someone playing this many hands, and considering your very tight image you need to call here.