The Poker Gods test me

[Analyst]

20-40 live game at Bay101, 10 handed. Typical game in that the players are fairly loose, though I haven't yet seen any uber-LAG play.

UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 3-bets, MP (probably the loosest player at the table) caps, folded to me in the SB. I have JJ and . . .

- it's an easy fold?
- it's a call, but close?
- happily toss in $70 since it's very likely I have implied odds to flop a set.

[Garland]

Questions I have:

How long have you played this session?
How often has the pot been 3-bet preflop?
What has been common showings for 3-bets preflop for this game?
Is capping a common occurrence pre flop?
Are UTG and UTG+1 both loose players? In particular is UTG+2 loose? (Better descriptions of UTG and UTG+1 would help greatly. Perhaps from earlier play.)
How aggressive is post flop play?

Although I don't necessarily respect MP's cap, you still have to respect the fact that strength has been shown at least twice (if not thrice by MP) from early position, and given standard opposition, I would lay this down fearing you're up against at least one overpair. I think implied odds are overrated here. You have to pay $70, and if you think you're behind, you need to recover ~$500 with a set (or straight draw), and have the disciple to fold even an overpair once the heat is too much.

Fold, watch the players' betting patterns, aggressiveness and especially the showdown so you will be better prepared to know what to do next time such a situation arises.

If you have posted as much knowledge as you had at the moment you had to make a decision to cold call a cap from SB with JJ, you are ill-equipped to play out this hand. Muck.

Garland

[Analyst]

[ QUOTE ]
Questions I have:

How long have you played this session?
How often has the pot been 3-bet preflop?
What has been common showings for 3-bets preflop for this game?
Is capping a common occurrence pre flop?
Are UTG and UTG+1 both loose players? In particular is UTG+2 loose? (Better descriptions of UTG and UTG+1 would help greatly. Perhaps from earlier play.)
How aggressive is post flop play?

Although I don't necessarily respect MP's cap, you still have to respect the fact that strength has been shown at least twice (if not thrice by MP) from early position, and given standard opposition, I would lay this down fearing you're up against at least one overpair. I think implied odds are overrated here. You have to pay $70, and if you think you're behind, you need to recover ~$500 with a set (or straight draw), and have the disciple to fold even an overpair once the heat is too much.

Fold, watch the players' betting patterns, aggressiveness and especially the showdown so you will be better prepared to know what to do next time such a situation arises.

If you have posted as much knowledge as you had at the moment you had to make a decision to cold call a cap from SB with JJ, you are ill-equipped to play out this hand. Muck.

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have emphasized that there are players against whom this would have been a trivial decision to muck, and some players where I'd be aching to 5-bet. The lack of much hard information here is one of the reasons that this was a tough decision at the time. Some additional, if sketchy, details that should have been included upfront, however, include:

- this was a new game and we'd only played a couple of orbits. I only recognized a couple of players and they weren't involved in this hand. However, MP has raised preflop perhaps half a dozen times already. While he hasn't shown down, the fact that he has mucked most of these as losers is at least some indication that he's raising light. Again, with the new game I don't have much direct information about the other two players but they seem to be playing a lot of pots, and again, in general the Bay101 players have significantly lower betting/raising standards than the 2+2 norm.

- no 3-bet hands (of the 2-3 previous to this hand) have been shown down except for QQ at this table. My typical experience at Bay101 at this time of day (and ignoring known total maniacs) is that for many players a 3-bet could mean any mid-level pocket pair, almost any suited ace, ATo and perhaps even KJo and up; these may be a bit extreme, perhaps, but by no means impossible.

- post flop has been pretty agg, particularly from the three raisers, making it more likely that I'd get sufficient action after the flop for proper implied odds.

[The Truth]

Id muck it.
Description looks like you are up against a bigger pair somewhere.
Often in games like this, when the betting is this strong preflop, action will shut off post flop. I dont think you are going to make enough when you do hit your set.
With the 4 better being a donk, its fairly close, but to lean on the side of small swings, I throw it away.

[Analyst]

[ QUOTE ]

20-40 live game at Bay101, 10 handed. Typical game in that the players are fairly loose, though I haven't yet seen any uber-LAG play.

UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 3-bets, MP (probably the loosest player at the table) caps, folded to me in the SB. I have JJ and . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

I mucked.

The poker gods rewarded me as the BB showed me his AA. Interesting note was that he never bet out or raised once during the entire hand.

Then the gods laughed as the flop came J98r.

They rewarded me again as the turn was a 10. With 4 players, the straight was almost a given.

But the poker gods always have the last laugh, and they did here as the river was an 8; my boat would have won a sizable pot, though mucking was still the right action.

The poker gods weren't quite done with me, though, and put on a little demonstration. The very next hand, I open raised QQ on the button. SB (AA no bet, no raise from the last hand) calls. Flop is Jxx, he checkraises and then calls down after I 3-bet . . . he had JJ, and for the second hand in a row pocket jacks flopped the winning hand.