JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

Elaboration · #1 12-27-2005, 10:43 PM

Betgo,

I dont think the draw is that strong. You can't often say hero has 13 clean outs.

If we put villian on a generous range(Q8-QJ,KT-KQ,T9,99,AT-AJ), I think Hero needs more FE than he has to make this a push.
Though I could certainly be convinced otherwise.

Elaboration · #2 12-28-2005, 11:52 PM

Betgo,

Finally got around to this. I think a push here is spewing. Thoughts?

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 34.4735 % [ 00.30 00.05 ] { JTo }
Hand 2: 65.5265 % [ 00.61 00.05 ] { 99, AJs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-Q8s, J9s, T9s, AJo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-Q8o }

#3 12-29-2005, 12:11 AM

Fold JTo preflop. You are out of position with a drawing hand. This is not a good situation, since you cannot take too much heat with JTo when there is a lot of action.

Given the situation which you describe i would agree with betgo and push. You have a pair + a draw which is a strong holding. What is villain's range?
If he had a set I suppose that he wouldn't have raised immediately. QT, Q9 are fairly loose holdings in early position, altough he has 10k and the blinds are 300/600. The only reasonable holding which beats you is AQ. If he really has AQ you still have outs, so push.

Elaboration · #4 12-29-2005, 12:35 AM

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What is villain's range?

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You gotta consider, this is a $2 mtt. There are many many limping hands that hit this flop.

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The only reasonable holding which beats you is AQ.

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This just isnt true. You realize that QJ is a bigger favorite than AQ here, right?

I'm not absolute in saying a push is bad, but I need more than "I have pair+draw, must push"