Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!

[woodguy]

Hello All,

Early in $100 MTT

Relevent stacks:

UTG = 87 BB
UTG+1 = 124 BB
MP1 = 107 BB
ME = 100 BB

In in the CO w/ black 66

UTG limps, UTG+1 limp, MP1 Raises to 4 BB's, I call, UTG calls, now UTG+1 raises to 14BB's ?!?!

MP1 calls, so I figure I'm getting some nice implied odds on 2 or 3 stacks, UTG didn't limp/raise the first chance he had to so I'm not worried about him re-opeining the betting for UTG+1, so I call, UTG folds

Flop (44BBs) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Oh boy.

UTG+1 bets 33 BB's, MP1 calls

Hero has 84 BB's left.

I figure UTG+1 for a big pair given his PF actions.

If I get HU with him with a push now I have 40% equity in a pot w/ 245BB's where I'm putting in 84BB's, I like that price and will take it every day of the week (yes even for my TOURNAMENT LIFE)

The problem is MP1's flat call.

I have no read, and MP1's hand may seriously diminish my equity in this pot if I push and he comes along after UTG+1 calls (I *know* UTG+1 has a big pair and is coming along if I push)

I thought about calling, but I don't like the thought of a blank coming off and I have to fold to any reasonable bet in this big pot.

I also don't like the thought of my card coming and getting no action on the turn.

So, what do you put MP1 on, what do you think of my line so far, and what do you do?

Regards,
Woodguy

[zambonidrivr]

I'm getting out of the way here. I think you can find a better spot. I think I read a post from you once "you can't afford not to push small edges, and either can Woodguy". Look your behind here, find a place you have a edge. YOu have a nice stack, great FE, get away from this hand and move forward.

[A_PLUS]

Woodguy is a donk, this is as big of an edge as he can hope for.

The only questionable part of your line to me is the PF 2nd call. The pot odds are basically unimportant, this is a pure implied odds play. I dont love risking >10% of my stack to flop a set. I can see myself calling here quite alot, but it never feels right afterwards.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

Woodguy is a donk, this is as big of an edge as he can hope for.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct.

[ QUOTE ]
The only questionable part of your line to me is the PF 2nd call. The pot odds are basically unimportant, this is a pure implied odds play. I dont love risking >10% of my stack to flop a set. I can see myself calling here quite alot, but it never feels right afterwards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? If i check/fold the flop I still have 84BBs.....deeeep baby.

Regards,
Woodguy

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]

The only questionable part of your line to me is the PF 2nd call. The pot odds are basically unimportant, this is a pure implied odds play. I dont love risking >10% of my stack to flop a set. I can see myself calling here quite alot, but it never feels right afterwards.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not true at all. if there were not already a lot of money in the pot, i'd fold to a 10bb raise pretty quickly. it's only because there's the extra money that makes it a call. the implied odds are important, but the immediate odds are also.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The only questionable part of your line to me is the PF 2nd call. The pot odds are basically unimportant, this is a pure implied odds play. I dont love risking >10% of my stack to flop a set. I can see myself calling here quite alot, but it never feels right afterwards.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not true at all. if there were not already a lot of money in the pot, i'd fold to a 10bb raise pretty quickly. it's only because there's the extra money that makes it a call. the implied odds are important, but the immediate odds are also.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I meant by this was...

The only way we are going to be seeing a turn card here 90% of the time is when we are all in (or are working our way there). It is unlikely, given that we are pretty sure we are up against AA or KK, that we are winning anything other than a HUGE pot when we win. So, relatively speaking the implied odds (84-168BBs) are much more important than the immediate odds.

Basically the play of the hand has ruled out winning a medium pot, we are either winning HUGE or losing it all.

[schwza]

right, but the money in the pot means you only need to win ~40 bb's when you hit instead of 80. (fuzzy math)

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Look your behind here, find a place you have a edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thnk my equity + the price I'm getting is a pretty good edge.

My big question is how does MP1's hand effect my edge.

Regards,
Woodguy

[WinBig]

I tried to put some #'s on the stacks because the BB figures were getting me confused. Assume the blinds are 10/15:

Before the hand the stack sizes are:
UTG+1 has 1860
MP1 has 1605
Hero has 1500

Pot is roughly 660 going to the flop and the stack sizes are now:
UTG+1 = 1650
MP1 = 1395
Hero = 1290

UTG+1 bets 495 or 3/4 of the pot and MP1 calls. I really have a hard time believing MP1 flat calls 35% of his stack here here getting 2.3 to 1 odds on a flush draw. If he has the nut flush draw a push here seems like a better play. So I think MP1 also has a big pair because his raise preflop doesn't look like a pocket pair that could hit a set on that flop. I think you have 10 outs twice to win. I push.

Yes, if MP1 is on the nut flush, pushing is the better play, but because he called I think he is a donk chasing a flush for any price, so he would not be smart enough to know to push.

-Gross