Stars $500k hand w/TP against another big stack

[DonT77]

Hey Lloyd - Interesting hand.

I think there are a few reasons to call and a few reasons to fold-

reasons to call: you're getting 2.3:1 with TP (which is probably +EV given his range), winning gives you a nice stack, losing doesn't bust you, he could be representing the an Ace thinking that you don't have one - especially if you've been CB'ing most of the time, and lastly why would he push a really strong hand like a set or AK here - as the flush draw is remote given the suit of the Ace on board.

reasons to fold: you have him covered and you'll be getting 2.3:1 on a call - so he's gotta think the chances of you calling him is pretty strong with a decent hand like AQ, AJ, AT etc. and after all he is "putting his tourney life at stake" [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img], if you call and lose you'll be short-stacked (~5BBs) and may not make the money, and his LP PF call is suspicious from an aggressive player - like a pair, or a slowplayed monster.

This is a close decision. Personally, I might have folded and waited for a better opportunity since you are nearing the bubble and that is a spot where cEV and $EV diverge. I think if his stack was like twice my stack or more - I might give a bully bluff more credit and be slightly more likely to call, but given that you have him covered and the pot odds he is giving you I tend to give his raise more credence since I tend to see fewer all-in bluffs near the bubble. JMO.

[adanthar]

This is an interesting hand, but a lot of the replies get it wrong.

First and foremost: KK-QQ don't coldcall preflop to push an A-high flop when someone makes the standard 2/3 continuation bet, and neither does any other pair. I know it happens once in a great while in a $5 tournament, but c'mon.

In a more typical situation, you could virtually always narrow down his holdings to (set, A7s, ace something.) A flush draw is *possible* but the chance of one is small, because the ace is out and you're gonna get 2.3:1 to call his push/basically said that you have one.

But that's not the end, because we can narrow his hand range further. He's very aggro PF *on the bubble*, has raised UTG and folded to a push before, and you outstack him. He's not coldcalling your raise with a weak ace, because he's smart enough to take advantage of the bubble and the last thing he wants to do is take you on. He's also not calling you with twos - maybe ITM with deeper stacks when he can take it away from you postflop, but not here. The fact is that people that are aggro on the bubble are generally good, and once he coldcalls a bigger stack PF, his range narrows down a lot.

So, after you tell him you have an ace and he pushes, I put him on exactly AK-AQs, (small chance of) AA/77. A8s is really wishful thinking (as is AJ). Any other thought process, and you're assuming he's a donkey when the chances are that he's not.

PS: I also don't mind checking this flop, although a lot of times that I'd do that here, it would be because I'm playing the player and not the situation.

[schwza]

you have to raise this pre-flop. it's bubble time, so you're going to steal a lot of pots. it's nice to have AT instead of 68 because there are probably short-stacks who you're PC'ed against, so you'd like a hand with decent showdown value.

i'd fold on the flop. i think that the smooth-call is likely to be a trap with AQ+/QQ+, and i don't think QQ/KK pushes very often. i don't think that villain is that likely to screw around this close to the bubble.

[John W]

He's either crazy or has you beat. I would fold.