#11
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Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
[ QUOTE ]
I think that people are answering this too quickly without giving it enough thought. Suppose I am in the SB and Phil Ivey is the BB. Everyone folds to me. Ok, what am I thinking ? Well, firstly I’m sh!t scared of having to get involved in a hand with Phil Ivey. If we get to see a flop, then he’s definitely going to outplay me, and I’m going to lose chips, so the best EV decision for me is to fold. Even if I have KK or QQ, I’m going to fold, cos if I raise and he calls me, I’m in deep trouble after that because he’s got position, and well, because he’s Phil Ivey. Then I look at my hand – oh no, AA. Disaster ! What do I do ? I know, I’ll go all in. That way I cleverly negate his positional advantage. He can’t outplay me because I don’t have to think anymore. So, that’s what I do. All in. Ok, now look at it from Phil Ivey’s position. He has AA and the SB has gone all-in. Because he’s Phil Ivey, he reads the SB like an open book, and immediately draws the conclusion that the SB has AA too. So if Phil calls all-in, then 95.65% of the time, the pot is split. But 2.17% of the time Phil wins, and 2.17% of the time Phil loses. So Phil says to himself, “why take the chance of doubling up when there’s an equal chance of me being knocked out ? I’ll get lots of better opportunities later. So, I fold.” Result : Instant fold. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong on so many levels. |
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