QQ into a raise on flop

[Shillx]

If we 3-bet the flop, we will have to certainly call a cap if it comes and take a look at a turn card. The pot will be 12.5 SB on the turn. Assume that we have no implied odds at all.

Turn Fold % = 62 (Cost = .5 BB, what it costs to call the flop cap)

EV turned flush draw (p = .17) = .239*8.25 - 1 = + .97 BB
EV turned straight draw (p = .128) = .13*8.25 - 1 = + .07 BB
EV turned SF draw (p = .043) = .283*8.25 - 1 = + 1.33 BB
EV turned Queen (p = .043) = 0

The bad = - .5 BB*.62 = - .31 BB
The good = .17*.97 BB + .128*.07 BB + .043*1.33 BB = + .23 BB

Net = - .08 BB/hand

So yeah we can't fold the flop UI. We are only making a small mistake if you don't include implied odds.

The question is if we have to call the flop check/raise. Assume one bet of implied odds for everything we hit and 3 BB for a turned queen. We can't play for a turned straight draw as well (even with 1 BB of implied odds). The pot will be 8.5 SB when the turn is delt.

The bad = -.5*.62
The good = .17*.73 + .043*1.05 + .043*3

Net = - .01 BB/hand

So it looks like we can't call the flop check/raise unless we can find some extra implied odds in there. We would have to collect 2 BB if we complete the straight and get 1 BB on average when we make a flush. Either that or we have to get more should a queen hit. I think we can probably pull it off though. It is a close call either way though it now looks like we can swing a call here (I can't add sometimes [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]).