Party $33 rebuy, near bubble hand

[Steve]

43 players remaining, top 40 pay. 40th place gets about $250, but 1st is $10000, so there's some incentive to try to make the money but obviously your really don't want to hurt your chances of making the final table too much by being a chicken.

So, here's the situation. BB was a good player -- he's tight but also is certainly capable of trying to steal this one from me knowing that I don't want to risk all my chips at this point. Given this situation, could someone who has more experience with these situations help me analyze his range and the math on what to do here? i.e. if you were in this situation, what would you think are the:

% chance he has a pair
% chance he has AK or AQ
% chance he has a weaker Ace
% chance he has absolutely nothing

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1500 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t17636)
UTG+1 (t14546)
MP1 (t14426)
MP2 (t52248)
Hero (t27841)
CO (t22098)
Button (t10920)
SB (t52040)
BB (t49377)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t4500</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB is all-in.