Through the eyes of Villain - misplayed on every street?

[MN_Mime]

After seeing all the commentary, I recant consideration of 3-betting the river. It's clearly spewing. All y'all are correct [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

What are people thinking that the SB is playing with in this hand that he is calling 3 bets on the turn but then folding on the river?

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Is prior knowledge of his holding an influence here? I'm not eliminating those holdings but they are largely inconsistent with the action.

...

I'm not saying you're wrong. If I knew the answer, I wouldn't have posted. I had my reasons for this line and I'm looking for something more than anecdotal arguments to find the correct line.


[/ QUOTE ]

I can honestly say that I'm not being influenced by Villan's holding, here. And, note, I'm not telling you to fold, since I think your redraw to the flush is worth playing with the pot so big. I suppose my arguments are anecdotal, but I think that having seen players wait to raise a strong hand on the turn, with complete disregard for the action leading to the turn, at least 5 times a day for 3 months is a pretty strong story (and, by the way, the purpose of posting hands here is, specifically, to benefit from others' experience which is, by definition, anecdotal...you can't put a specific EV calculation to every play).

A third flush card fell on the river. You, preflop raiser and flop bettor, bet out and are raised by a previously quiet player. You're telling me that this says to you, "I have just picked up a flush draw to my overcards, and I'm getting aggressive with it." I'm telling you that this says to me, "I just got a little frightened by a possible flush, and I'm choosing to tell you now that I have top pair beat." Please keep in mind, that as of this turn top pair is all you're beating.

Unless Villan is a nutbag, he's not going to raise an overcard flush draw on this turn. Which means he has you beat on the turn, and you should be calling to your flush, not raising a pair that ONLY beats top pair on the board.

As to the river: betting out/3-betting this river is a terrible line. I don't care how you cut it, or why you did it. You claim to have played the turn the way you did because you thought that Villan was getting aggro with an overcard flush draw, but now that that doesn't give you the winning hand any more, that's not what he has?

Seriously, dude, you're accusing ME of being results-oriented in MY analysis of your play? You're justifying your play on every street by saying, "I should be ahead," when Villan is clearly telling you you're not.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
After seeing all the commentary, I recant consideration of 3-betting the river. It's clearly spewing. All y'all are correct [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Praise be, thank you, Jeebus! He's healed!

Oh, wait...he's partly healed! You're still defending the 3-bet on the turn?

[MN_Mime]

[ QUOTE ]
You're justifying your play on every street by saying, "I should be ahead," when Villan is clearly telling you you're not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly?! He's spoken up once and at an odd time at that.

Villain tells me lots of things...

He plays too many hands.
He doesn't believe that the board helps me.
He believes a scare card is an opportunity based upon position or fit.

Can't he be raising to try to price SB out of the pot or otherwise charge him for chasing as much as telling me that he can beat top pair better than I can?

I'm not ignoring the fact that I could be behind. But in more than 50% of those cases, I'm redrawing to 11 clean outs. Add that to the number of times that I'm ahead against a better redraw (~30 outs) and I don't think the turn 3-bet is out of line.

[MN_Mime]

[ QUOTE ]
What are people thinking that the SB is playing with in this hand that he is calling 3 bets on the turn but then folding on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

My stab is either some kind of two pair hand or a bottom flush that he sure doesn't like when it comes to him with 2 bets each time. I think he's the best candidate for the 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I like Villain's line on the turn, but that should've been his line on such a low flop. PF, flop and river are all bad.

I put Hero on a small range (AA-TT, AK, AQ, possibly AJs) at 20%. With a higher VPIP, this range opens up to include marginal UTG hands like 77-99, AT+, KQ+.

EDIT: Ok, I read through the replies. Wow man, TT? And a 3bet on the turn? In my eyes, villain's line can easily be seen as someone drawing to a flush (since he called flop w/ good pot odds, then 3-bet the turn after the third club fell). I would definitely call this one down and hope that my overpair holds up, or I could use T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on a better flush (which river did). Also, that river drops TT to second-best--something big if someone joined in with J9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], which is also a possibility.

-AC

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly?! He's spoken up once and at an odd time at that.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the contrary. Like my post said, his lines look like a flush draw catching it on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Villain tells me lots of things...

He plays too many hands.
He doesn't believe that the board helps me.
He believes a scare card is an opportunity based upon position or fit.

Can't he be raising to try to price SB out of the pot or otherwise charge him for chasing as much as telling me that he can beat top pair better than I can?

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that villain is loose with hands doesn't change the fact that he raised your bet on the turn with (again, like I said) a flop line that looks like a flush, and you're still holding top pair at best. Basically, for a board like this, I think you overplayed your hand and got saved by a river. I understand that you picked up the redraw on the turn, but I feel, at this point in time, that villain holds KQ or KJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Read my argument below.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not ignoring the fact that I could be behind. But in more than 50% of those cases, I'm redrawing to 11 clean outs. Add that to the number of times that I'm ahead against a better redraw (~30 outs) and I don't think the turn 3-bet is out of line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Less of a debate and more of a Q: where do you get "more than 50% of those cases" and the 11 outs from?

For some reason, the more I read this HH the more I feel villain played like he held KQ or KJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. This is, of course, before the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls on the river. The line he takes with the flop is consistent with that, especially with the overs. On this turn, with his 3bet, I'm putting him on KJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Correct me if I'm wrong or sounding weak.

Btw, what blinds are we talking about here? If they're .5/1, I'm giving villain too much credit.

-AC

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly?! He's spoken up once and at an odd time at that.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I said, "wait to raise the turn" is a veeery popular line these days. With 3 to a flush on the board, thinking you're ahead on the turn is overplaying your hand. I understand you don't agree with me, and I'm tired of typing, now, so this'll be my last post.

[ QUOTE ]
Can't he be raising to try to price SB out of the pot or otherwise charge him for chasing as much as telling me that he can beat top pair better than I can?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course he could be. Again, on one hand, when it suits you, Villan is a terrible player that's overplaying his overcards/flush draw, and on the other hand, when it suits you, Villan is a freakin' genius that's trying to horse you out of a pot. Which is it?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not ignoring the fact that I could be behind. But in more than 50% of those cases, I'm redrawing to 11 clean outs. Add that to the number of times that I'm ahead against a better redraw (~30 outs) and I don't think the turn 3-bet is out of line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here we go again. What about the number of times you're behind AND behind a better redraw, from one or both of your Villans (Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] comes to mind). Let's say the number of times that you're behind to a better hand and a better redraw cancels out with the number of times that you're ahead against just a better redraw, and give you that you're redrawing to 11 clean outs. Is 11 clean outs enough to 3-bet with at most 2 opponents, possibly only 1?

[monix]

Yes, he misplayed every street, imo.

I'd put you on AcKc, AcQc, AcAo, KcKo or QcQo.