Curtains: flop decision

[ravensfan]

JB: I agree that you want to take down the pots and project the image. But imo, in this case I think the specifics, and position, make checking worthwhile.

I think though that a flush on turn will still get bet to you a fair amount of times since there's little reason for villian to put you on a flush draw and they may even make a probe bet to determine your strength. I mean, you've already shown weakness in this hand so they might take a stab at the pot if any Ace doesn't come (they might have you on high A considering pf action). If you call or reraise/ on turned flush (or 10) you should get some more chips a fair amount of time. Implied odds should be large here i think, which is why i'm comfortable checking.

Also, if you bet the pot and then fold to a reraise all-in, isn't it a large -EV situation? I think i'd have to reluctantly call, which is why I'd hate to allow the situation to occur.

I think all three options are likely +EV, but the largest EV is checking since it definitely doesn't involve a race for your flush.

[jb9]

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Also, if you bet the pot and then fold to a reraise all-in, isn't it a large -EV situation? I think i'd have to reluctantly call, which is why I'd hate to allow the situation to occur.

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I don't think it is a large -EV situation. If you assume the re-raise has a reasonable chance of meaning he has 2 pair or better, it's borderline, and I would reluctantly fold.

If I couldn't fold here, I would check behind.

But, in some ways checking behind just seems like avoiding a potentially tough decision and giving in to the big stack. We are afraid of the re-raise all in on the flop when it would create a difficult, borderline decision, so we check and get to the turn where the decision will probably be much simpler.

If the big stack is going to be a bully and force everyone to play any hand for their entire stack, this is valuable information to have, and now is as a good a time as any to find out.

I understand the reasoning for checking being a good (perhaps the best) play for this hand, but there is still a lot of poker to be played before this tournament is decided and I like the idea of finding out something about the big stack.

Will he call from his blind then check/fold a not too scary flop for a standard continuation bet?

Also, I hate the idea of raising preflop, checking behind on the flop, and folding to a bet on the turn. If that happens, I'm basically saying "I'm afraid of your stack and if you don't fold to my preflop bets I will only bet when I hit the flop so rest assured you always know what I'm holding".

[ravensfan]

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If the big stack is going to be a bully and force everyone to play any hand for their entire stack, this is valuable information to have, and now is as a good a time as any to find out.

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I'd rather find out with someone else's $400. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

I definitely love your point about playing poker and getting some information on big stack, but with a drawing hand this good, in position, i'd like to play it for free. With nothing, such as QQ on a AKK flop, i don't mind c-betting, b/c i'm either winning or losing already and there's hardly any draws, and i can still find out something about villain. Besides, maybe you want him to find something out about you: that you don't fold bets to him (if he reraises AI) and that you'll slowplay occassionally - like when you hit the nut flush and call him down. This might make it tougher for the table to bet into you in the future.
Well, I think it's clearly -EV to fold if he c-raises AI with an overpair: given the number of chips in the pot (with a $400 bet there'd be what $1500 already? so you're risking basically $2000 to take $5500), and the fact that you're EV is +$750ish.

Given two pair, you still have basically 9 outs, or 1/3 chance of winning, and you're getting pretty close to proper odds on this anyways, but you're only -170ish EV.

I don't think it's that easy to conclude that he'll always push only with 2 pair, I can see him easily pushing with overpair can't he? If his only hand-range for pushing is AA, 2 pair, or set, then i agree you have to lay this down. In which case, it makes sense to bet b/c he'll almost never have that and you'll take the pot a high % of times.

I guess we just disagree on villain's pushing range.

[jb9]

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you're risking basically $2000 to take $5500

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Well, unless work has completely destroyed my brain (a distinct possibility) I think calling the all in would be $2000 to win $3000, so it is fairly close, especially since a certain % of the time the A and T outs are no good.

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I guess we just disagree on villain's pushing range.

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To be honest, I'm not too concerned about what he's pushing here, because I'm not calling any of it.

But I see your point about letting someone else burn chips getting info on the big stack and checking to the turn. Playing cautiously against the big stack is not a bad idea and will keep us nicely positioned to money in the tournament whether we hit our draw or not.

[ravensfan]

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Well, unless work has completely destroyed my brain (a distinct possibility) I think calling the all in would be $2000 to win $3000, so it is fairly close, especially since a certain % of the time the A and T outs are no good.

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Sorry, i wasn't very clear about the $5500, and my addition was bad. Initially there was $600 in the pot, plus your $400 bet and his $400 call, before his push. So that gives brings the pot to $1400. You have an extra 2K left, so you'd call his 2K and use your own, giving you $5400.

But i do agree, that in a lot of situations it's good policy to take down the pot right away when you're probably the favorite.... also good to set the tone that you'll bet if it's checked to you...