22: 77 from the button on the bubble

[IdiotVig]

BB has been pretty laggy all tourney. SB is a little weak/tight. Obvious push?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

SB (t1335)
BB (t3490)
UTG (t1400)
Hero (t1775)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero ?

[tigerite]

I'd push here.. the range of the BB has to be pretty humongous like any ace, pair, K9o+, K6s+, QTs+ and JTs. I understand he's a lag but a call outside of that range would be pretty ridiculous for most players. Even at a $22.

I struggle here with theory.

We basically have three players in a race for two spots, with you having a slight advantage because of stack. That means, theoretically, you have about a 70% chance of making the money at this point.

I think the BB's range is probably pretty huge here, no? If he calls, we are in a coin flip at best and at worst a huge dog to bigger pairs. I guess this is where ICM comes in? I finally just purchased SNGPT yesterday, so maybe I'll start to get a better understanding of things as I start to plug these type of hands into the calculator.

It appears I never made a point, which was supposed to be that I fear getting into (at best) coinflip situations when I am theoretically at 70%ish to make the money. Thoughts?

When you discount blinds 50% and use the default average range (66+,ATs+,AJo+) for the SB and the default loose range (44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+) for the BB, this is a break even push. So, I don't think it's a clear push.

Switch the stacks between UTG and the BB and the push (using the same discounting and ranges) is now +1.1%

[tigerite]

I still am not convinced about the discounting blinds stuff, so I didn't use it.

[IdiotVig]

[ QUOTE ]
When you discount blinds 50% and use the default average range (66+,ATs+,AJo+) for the SB and the default loose range (44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+) for the BB, this is a break even push. So, I don't think it's a clear push.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is discounting 50% a reasonable amount, though, given the stack sizes in play?

Well, if this hand is folded around, next hand the BB will have 1400 and the SB will have 3590. I think this makes it highly likely the BB will be contested next hand.

[tigerite]

You do realise that 50% actually just takes off 50% of the big blind from his stack, and assumes those are the stacks at the end of this hand (if everyone folds to the BB).. and it doesn't do that for EV/no call. That's why I don't overly trust it, I mean the thing about taking off 100 from UTG's stack is alright I suppose, and then assuming we have 7900 chips in play, but it's the EV no call bit that bothers me intently, it assumes he still has 1400.

At least, unless eastbay has since fixed it.

[durron597]

This is a pretty easy push.