Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Flop II

[adanthar]

Once again: 11 turn cards either kill our hand or our action. There is no possible way you can fold here, and very little possible way that anything better than AQ ever folds here.

If my goal were to get more chips out of exactly Ax/AQ/pair+draw, I'd call. I don't think that's my goal right now, though, because when any Broadway hits the turn you lose action from every hand you currently beat, anyway.

Because of that, I push right here and let KJ call. If I were a good enough hand reader to be 100% accurate to know whether to call or fold to a bet after a T turn/blank river, I'd be happier just calling. But I'm not there (yet) and a wrong decision is disastrous, so I'm making this one easy for myself.

PS: This may be different for a 109 than something like a Super, given that everyone in a 109 bought in directly and you cannot count on a donk call. If something like QJ *ever* calls a push in a 109, however, this is not close.

[mts]

umm call, if he wants to keep putting money in with the worst hand let him.

[SossMan]

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Hmmm..

i'm thinking he'd fold to a push, and the board isn't that scary.. i say call and raise his turn bet (assuming he makes one)

as for a hand, A7s+, KQ, 88+.

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Wow did I think about this one differently. I really hate seeing the turn with this hand, and I think villain's range is very different.

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what range do you put him on that is scared of a turn card?

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I'm scared of a turn card. I really hate calling here, but given who's disagreeing with me. I'll probably crunch numbers on this at some point.

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i understand, i mean what range of hands do you put him on that makes you scared of a turn card?

there are 11 possible cards that can come on the turn that will either kill your action or your hand.

A scare card will only come like 25% of the time. I think that the risk is worth him PC'ing himself when he's drawing dead on the blank turn.

[adanthar]

Well, if he leads a blank turn, you obviously do get more. Most likely, he is gonna check the turn and your maximum extraction line is gonna lead to checking behind with the intention of calling most bets on any river.

This works if you are the best hand reader of all time and even works when you're just really, really good. I think that that's one of my strengths, but to say I can distinguish between a value bet from A8o, KJo, AT and QT on the eventual AKJ52 board (or better yet AKQJ)...nope. It might be close, but not the amount of time it would take for me to be comfortable not pushing right here.

[kuro]

The trouble with flat calling is that you still go broke to the hands that have you trounced already (sets/QT) when you push the turn/call down, you give the crafty villain a chance to bluff you off your hand if a scare card hits on the turn/river, and you let vi1lains with hands that aren't giving you any action on subsequent streets without improving a chance to beat you.

Villain may have interpreted your half pot bet as weakness and be trying to test you for the very minimum or be trying to buy a check behind on the turn from you so he has a better shot at having his hand improve. There are a lot more weak hands in villain's range that may take this line than hands that have you crushed.

So I push.

[aceferret]

AA, KK, JJ, and AK all reraise preflop.
QT has no desire to play a pot w similiar stack size out of position, against an UTG raise .

So we are ahead, how to extract max value from AJ, AQ, AT or worse.

Min raise at this stage in tournament screams AJ to me. Villian has to be afraid of AA, KK, and AK. Villian min raises b/c he cant fold two pair but is unsure of where he is at and doesnt want to commit any more chips. If we push he folds. I call and hopefully dodge a J on turn.

If villian checks I underbet (1/3 pot) turn to ensure he stays in. If he commits himself I raise. J hits I check behind.

[gergery]

the min check-raise is usually a monster, a feeler or an attempt at a free card.
Here I don't think its possible for him to have the monster, as I think QT has to worry that you have AA,KK,JJ, so I think he bets bigger. I also see JJ either betting bigger or having raised preflop.

So i figure him for AJ or KJ on a feeler hoping to find out whether you have AK/AA/KK/JJ. Also possibly AQ/AT hoping to freeze you on the turn and get a free card for the gutshot. I guess QJ/JT might also be possible if he is bad

I think call is best here, with the plan to raise him on the turn. You get the most chips here if he's got worse two pair, so i focus on playing against those holdings for him.

--g

[Ryendal]

I call with the idea to reraise his bet at the turn. If a scaring card comes at turn and
a) He check, I check
b) he bet, I will decide exatly what do at this moment

[johnnybeef]

I'm not getting cute here, i like a 3 bet.

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AA, KK, JJ, and AK all reraise preflop.
QT has no desire to play a pot w similiar stack size out of position, against an UTG raise .

So we are ahead, how to extract max value from AJ, AQ, AT or worse.

Min raise at this stage in tournament screams AJ to me. Villian has to be afraid of AA, KK, and AK. Villian min raises b/c he cant fold two pair but is unsure of where he is at and doesnt want to commit any more chips.

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bravo