Bad Time to Peel One Off?

soweak. · #1 09-06-2005, 11:38 PM

CO is a typical weak/tight TAG. Rest of the players are loose passive calling stations.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, CO raises, SB calls, Hero ???

sy_or_bust · #2 09-06-2005, 11:41 PM

This is a similar situation to "a hand from the archives" that jason t just posted. You're missing a backdoor straight draw, but your king has some extra potential. I'd fold, but it might be an interesting decision.

soweak. · #3 09-06-2005, 11:44 PM

I was thinking the same thing as it came around back to me.

SippinSoma · #4 09-06-2005, 11:56 PM

Easy peel homie. 8.5:1, 6.5 outs.

MyTurn2Raise · #5 09-07-2005, 12:08 AM

fold...UTG (described as loose-passive) bet into TAG CO pre-flop raiser. He's either feeling around for an overpair (not a typical donk move), or he hit the flop pretty well (pair w straight draw, two pair, set). In addition, tight, weakCO raised that bet. Maybe an AK, most likely (>90%) better.

How many outs do you really have?

TheHammer24 · #6 09-07-2005, 12:08 AM

Easy? I disagree. You aren't closing the action and your hand is gross. The pot is huge though. All 5 outs for the K and the 2 are not necessarily clean. I'll say 4 outs and 1.5 for your back door flush draw. You are getting 15:2 immediate odds and you're about 7:1 dog to make your hand on the turn. However, we must consider effective odds for your backdoor draw meaning you will have to put in extra bets on the turn. Not closing the action, weak hand, it's not one you want to call down with, I fold in this situation.

SippinSoma · #7 09-07-2005, 12:10 AM

You are getting laid 17:1 (SB cold called).

Also, please describe situations where his outs are dirty.

TheHammer24 · #8 09-07-2005, 12:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting laid 17:1 (SB cold called).

Also, please describe situations where his outs are dirty.

[/ QUOTE ]

17:2. He has to cold call here.

Also, A2, KK, 34, 66, 22, 55.

MyTurn2Raise · #9 09-07-2005, 12:18 AM

raiser could have KK. UTG might have set.

Redraws likely. If UTG doesn't have set, he's very likely on a two pair or pair with inside straight. Cutoff raiser can draw out to bigger two pairs if he has aces.

Plus, you might be stuck for 4! bets on flop.

soweak. · #10 09-07-2005, 12:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How many outs do you really have?

[/ QUOTE ]

My immediate guess was 7 (3 Kings, 2 deuces, 2 for BDFD). Is this incorrect thinking?