30+3 PP Level 2: Facing huge overbet with good draws

[Pete H]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed) converter

MP ( $1810 )
CO ( $2240 )
Button ( $830 )
SB ( $665 )
Hero ( $815 )
UTG ( $815 )
UTG+1 ( $825 )

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t60</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t45, Hero calls t30.

Flop: (t180) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB pushes, Hero ???

Most reasonable hand I can think for SB is Ax.
AK would've probably reraised preflop and if he has AT, I have enough outs.

I don't have the odds (if CO folds) against made set, straight or flush, but most likely those hands would've check-raised here.

At this point we don't have enough information about CO, but it doesn't matter that much.

If he's ahead of me and calls, I'm getting good odds to draw unless he has a made flush and that's not that likely as most of big diamonds are already used.

It's early, the pot was small before SB's push and 2 handed I'd fold this, but in this rare (at least for me) situation I can't think any reasonable ranges that would make pushing incorrect.

Agree? Disagree? Please, tell me why.

I don't have the full tournament history at work and I'm not 100% sure if I remember my reads correctly, but lets say SB was quite loose (and obviously aggressive) and CO was tightish and hadn't shown any aggression before.

[ChrisV]

What the hell are you putting your opponent on? KT? You're beating that hand, 60/40. Same with AT. I don't see him pushing a made hand and worst case you have flush outs anyway. A fold here would be ridiculous.

[yid3655]

This really is an easy call, with likely the best hand and a draw to nut flush and nut straight

[Hornacek]

[ QUOTE ]
A fold here would be ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MarkGrandy]

this is Your chance to get Your stack (least) to 1540 and eliminate 1 player, if You fold You have the smallest stack.
You cant wait any longer better chance

P.S. because You posted this, I think You folded or called and lost ?

[KramerTM]

Almost positive SB has AT here.

His push most likely means he has a fairly strong hand but does not want to see another card off because he fears the staright and flush draws. Overbets like this USUALLY mean weakness to me (a lot of times you'll see SB push here with Ax or MPGK) but not on a monotone board like this.

That said, I think I would call here. You certainly have 12 outs (9 diamonds and 3 non-diamond Jacks). If you're against AT which I strongly suspect, then you have an additional 6 outs (3 Kings will counterfeit his 2-pair, plus your 3 Queens). Finally if SB has Ax, you already have him killed.

BTW, I could also see SB doing with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or really any lone J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Almost positive SB has AT here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't see how you can be "almost positive" about his specific hand here. Let's not go overboard with our ability to look into our opponents' souls. That said, I'd call as well.

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Almost positive SB has AT here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't see how you can be "almost positive" about his specific hand here. Let's not go overboard with our ability to look into our opponents' souls. That said, I'd call as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh relax. I'm just having fun with reads. No need to get all spritual on me. I know, I know... we put our opponent on a range of hands and play accordingly. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[45suited]

I'm not getting spiritual, whatever that means. I was just questioning your "almost positive" read, that's all.

Not a big deal though. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[KramerTM]

Looking into one's soul is quite spiritual indeed.