looking for the muck? can i find it? should i?

[mike l.]

40-80 commerce. i have 9c7s in the cutoff and ive posted having come back from the restroom too late to buy the button. utg who has been playing snug raises, 3 people cold call, i call one more small bet, button cold calls, sb who has been playing snug calls, bb calls. lots of money lots of players. only pot like this all night.

the flop is 974 all hearts. checked to guy just on my right who bets, i raise, sb cold calls, utg cold calls. guy on my right calls. 4 of us.

turn is 8c. checked to me and i bet, sb pauses and checkraises, utg calls two cold, other guy folds, i call.

the river is As. sb bet, utg immediately calls. overcall or fold? is it close?

[highlife]

muck, if the river is the 2d i call. so i guess for me its close, the A pushes it over the edge.

[theBruiser500]

fold there are a lot of players in the pot. you are getting really good odds to call, but the other guy in there who is raising you isn't thinking "this pot is so big i can try to semibluff him off his hand, he doens't need to fold often for it to be right", he is thinking "this pot is huge, my opponent will call down with anything" and not pull any fast stuff on you. he has you beat fold.

[DcifrThs]

you can't play the first 3 streets any differently...when you're back on the turn you can fill up even if you're behind and you're getting plenty good ods to call.

so that leaves the river. although it looks like sb has a tiny flush or something like that i think you have to overcall closing the action, pot is quite large at that point and although 2pair is unlikely to win here, i err on the side of calling in these huge pots...although its probably SLIGHTLY negative ev if it is negative at all. if the sb hadn't been playing 'snug' then its probably a lot more positive or at least not negative, but since he's been playing tight, the cold call on flop and turn c'r is a bad sign for 2pair.

in the heat of battle id call as well. but i see what you're saying that its so unlikely you're good that you should be looking for the muck...but since its not the turn (since you can draw out) it leaves only the river...and thats a big ass pot to give up for 1 bet.

a friend of mine has a policy amongst friends that im about to extend to this situation, he said to me once " i have a policy, i dont fold big pots on the river vs. friends for 1 bet. it would be too bothersome psychologically if i were wrong and the cost is minimal, so i call."

similarly, being wrong here would be a big psychological hit for me if i folded for 1 bet closint the action and he had 87 or something like that (but it is hard to find a hand you beat here...)

-Barron

[theBruiser500]

dcirfths, i think that is weak, imprecise lazy poker. if you feel you should fold, just fold and stop making up excuses. one bet is $80, that is a lot of money. think of how good it feels to make a good fold, then later you can enjoy 4 dinners that are "free" because of the solid poer you play.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
dcirfths, i think that is weak, imprecise lazy poker. if you feel you should fold, just fold and stop making up excuses. one bet is $80, that is a lot of money. think of how good it feels to make a good fold, then later you can enjoy 4 dinners that are "free" because of the solid poer you play.

[/ QUOTE ]

sklansky bucks...mmmmmm bellagio omlet w/ lobster...FIVE of them [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ok i recant. i literally see 1 possible (remotely) hand he beats and thats a worse 2pair...nothin else...nothing at all from somebody playin snug. its a fold, and 5 bellagio classic omlets.

-Barron

[J.A.Sucker]

Call. UTG obviously has Ah, and I think he would have put in more action with the AA, so you've got him beat almost for sure. SB probably has you beat, but the pot is bigger than my hair is these days, so you have to call, and it's not much of a decision.

[theBruiser500]

next time you eat that lobster dcifir, enjoy it and think of me.

[theBruiser500]

you are wrong jasucker, sometime when me dcirif and you are in vegas we can go out to eat dinner. but you won't be able to get lobster with me and dcirif cause you lost all your money calling down in big pots, you will have to eat french fries and pizza. me and dcirif will be eating the lobster on your money, sorry.

[J.A.Sucker]

Buy me dinner then. You are still horribly wrong here, and you'll be as broke as me if you fold these rivers.