Cold bluff from the flop on

DavidC · #1 09-05-2004, 10:38 PM

Hey guys. I'm a little uncomfortable with firing the last bullet in this hand. It worked this time, but should I be doing this in the future?

The guy calling my flop raise indicates that he's on second pair, and I've given him nothing to believe that I don't have an ace. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: LuckyLucky is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, LuckyLucky calls, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB folds, UTG+1 checks, CO bets, LuckyLucky raises, UTG+1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, LuckyLucky bets, CO calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, LuckyLucky bets, CO folds.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB
Main Pot: 6.25 BB, won by LuckyLucky.
Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to LuckyLucky.

Quercus · #2 09-05-2004, 10:54 PM

With only two callers to you I'd probably fold this preflop. Its less than 12% to hit the set, and I'm not sure you've got enough callers to make it +EV to call. (Perhaps one of the resident experts will enlighten us.)

If the plan was to bluff if you didn't hit, why not raise it up preflop and try to keep both blinds out?

But, on the river, I think you are pretty much committed to betting. CO limped in and hasn't shown any aggression. Good chance he missed his flush draw.

Brian · #3 09-05-2004, 11:43 PM

Hi David,

Fold the Flop man. There's 2 overcards to your pair, the board is fairly co-ordinated, and the pot is small. Why are you fighting over this?

Brian · #4 09-05-2004, 11:46 PM

Quercus,

This is a very easy pre-Flop call. 2 callers is enough to call with any pocket pair here, all the way down to 22. And, 77 is a much better than 22, as it has more value outside flopping a set. You're also on the Button, meaning you have the best position. I would limp here with hands MUCH worse than 77. Depending on the players, hands like K5s, T7s, and 64s are all probable limping hands.

-Brian

Quercus · #5 09-05-2004, 11:52 PM

I bow to the greater knowledge.

If its worth a call on the button, does it then follow that its worth a raise, or do you not want to push out the blinds?

Brian · #6 09-06-2004, 12:31 AM

Hi Quercus,

Raising is much better than folding here, but I think that calling is best of all. Pocket pairs below about 99 prefer to either be heads-up or multiway. If there were only 1 limper, I'd probably raise and try to get it heads-up, but with 2, I'd rather keep the blinds in. If you raise and both blinds call, your raise is probably close to neutral EV in the long run, as you'll win the hand roughly your fair share; therefore, it's better to limp and wait to exploit your edge on the later rounds.

-Brian

Quercus · #7 09-06-2004, 12:57 AM

So, the corrolary would be, always raise pocket pairs on the button if no one has limped in?

ohgeetee · #8 09-06-2004, 01:26 AM

When you're first to enter from mid-late position, raising is almost always the right choice.

Gatts · #9 09-06-2004, 01:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When you're first to enter from mid-late position, raising is almost always the right choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is, if folding isn't. But sometimes you might feel frisky and figure to steal the blinds.

DavidC · #10 09-06-2004, 03:45 PM

I made my plan on the flop: to lean on him til the end of the hand. I became uncomfortable with my plan on the river, but I fired the last shot. However, I don't necessarily agree that creating a plan on the pf and sticking to it is important.

My initial plan was to hit my set or miss it and bet/raise or fold accordingly. However, only one guy showed any desire for the pot, and it was tough to tell immediately if he really had a legitimate hand.

As a side-note here, Sklansky says that when reading a hand, you shouldn't make an immediate decision on what they have on the flop but should refine your read within a range of possibilities throughout the hand.

With this in mind, I think it's also possible to change your plan in the middle of a hand, though you shouldn't do something that's inconsistent with previous actions (like representing an unlikely hand).

If I called the pf w/a7s or something like that, this is how I would play the hand when I hit my ace on the flop (call the pf, then lean til the river or until I got a bump).

It's also possible that my opponent would have played his hand much more aggressively heads-up, which would have made my bluff more difficult later.

I'm definitely going to have to learn when to bet on the river, because to me, this seemed questionable, while you guys saw it as an obvious play.