Hand Reading Exercise #1

[Schneids]

Hand One, which I've made up

Knowledge of opponent: Opponent is slightly over aggressive, yet sensible, but tends to back off when met with resistance unless he himself has a reasonable showing. Also, he's capable of running a bluff or semi-bluff, sometimes in obscure situations. In other words, a slightly above average, yet fairly typical Party player.

Preflop: Lets say you hold A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the SB. Opponent raises from the CO, you 3-bet, BB folds, and CO calls.

Flop: [ Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] You bet, he raises, you three-bet he calls.

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [ Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] you bet, he raises you again, you 3-bet, he calls.

River: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [ A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]You bet, he raises again.


Questions:

1. What does he have? How many potential holdings can you narrow it down to with about 95% accuracy?
2. Based on this, what is your play on the river and why?

[Peter_rus]

I would call. I have odds to call i believe.

Possible hands:
K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
AT with one [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
AQ

And some hands that maybe he likes to trick with by a bit slowplaying the turn (QQ,AA) or flop.

[DalaiLama]

A 10 of spades
You call.. the nasty set is still lurking

[worm33]

I think with a 4 bet cap on Party 99% of players will cap the turn with a set. So unless he has a set of tens I think thats about the only hand you can lose to, I would definitly 3 bet the river. On the turn I would think his most likely hand is an ace or Ax of spades. On the river it looks like he made aces and tens possilbly with the As10s. So 3 bet the river

[gonores]

The answer is AsTs and it's not even close...nothing else fits....the A improved his hand and the T improved his hand.

[ QUOTE ]
2. Based on this, what is your play on the river and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Toughie [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[schoolofphish]

New guy will give this one a shot.

I think there are only two real possibilities, A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

If he had a set he would very likely cap the turn. The only reason not to is if he fears a higher set. And if that's so, he wouldn't raise the river.

I'd say raising the river with AT is over-aggressive. We three-bet the turn and he must be fearing a monster, like a set of Queens of Ace-Queen. But it's possible.

KJ might semi-bluff raise on the turn when he picked up the gutshot. And would obviously raise the river with the nuts, since he can now beat two-pair, a big set, or whatever he put you on after you three-bet the turn.

The truth is most likely at the end of the hand. I'd say it's somewhat more likely he has the KJ of spades and just call the river.

[bvaughn]

K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is a logical holding with his line of play. Flop - he tried the free card raise. Turn - he picked up more outs, semi-bluff raise. River - made his nut hand so raise again.

Other possibilities include 77 or 44, but he might be concerned with you having QQ or AA yet wanting to extract extra bets in case you only have two pair. I guess there is always the far fetched possibility that he has 10 10 as well for his two outer.

I think that he could also have any combo of two pair hands - AQ, A10, Q10 or maybe even Q7.

As far as 95% probability, K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or possibly a split pot with AQ are the most likely...therefore I just call his river raise and hope my hand is good. If I 3 bet, and he caps, I'm always calling with top two.

Edit: After reading other replies, it seems I didn't think about A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] being more likely that AQ.

[fyodor]

I looked at this last night and thought A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] then saw that everyone else had already posted that deduction so I didn't reply. Now I see a bunch of KJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] posts.

I think the AT makes a whole lot more sense. I think the KJ is way less likely to raise the turn.

[schoolofphish]

I agree until the river. He's got big balls to raise the river just because he made aces-up after being three bet on the turn. I sure wouldn't be so confident that my aces and tens were good given that action.

The semi-bluff with KJ on the turn makes good sense to me. Not only did he pick up extra outs, but the ace hit, and we all know the ace is a scare card. He might be thinking there's some chance a turn raise there will get KQ or even KK to laydown.

So I'll stick with KsJs.

[eggzz]

A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]