Hand Reading Exercise #1

[Bob T.]

1. What does he have? How many potential holdings can you narrow it down to with about 95% accuracy?


I think AT of spades, KJ of spades, and A4 of spades are all possible. But A4 of spades is slightly less likely. There is also a small possibility of a set.

2. Based on this, what is your play on the river and why?

I don't think I can say that there is a 2/3 chance that I am ahead, so I am going to call the river.

How did I do on my first post in the shorthanded forum?

[renolite]

I take a different view - he is calling 3 bets on the flop and turn - sounds like a high pair (KK) to start. He doesn't take you for an ace, but isn't sure either - keeps trying to bully through with his big hand. What do ya think? Why play it up with KTs? Big gamble for a flush.

[gonores]

I don't see why he would take this line as opposed to capping the turn with A4s. Without a doubt, the 10 helped him. Also, I think his opponent knows the pot is probably large enough that the hero would be committed to the showdown with anything with anything that warrants a 3bet on the flop, so I think that greatly diminshes the likelyhood of KsJs.

[Schneids]

Alright, back from a relaxing two days...

I basically see ATs or KJs as the only two strong potential for hands, and of those, I think a vast majority of them are ATs.

I know in the description of opponent it said he is capable of semi bluff raises and such, but, I think the occurence of such an opponent like this having KJs AND raising both the flop and turn is very slim, thereby necessitating a 3-bet on the river.


Here's what I think is the most interesting part of this hand, by and large:

Lets flip the shoes a bit, and leave SB as a "2+2 caliber opponent," and lets put you in the CO. Now, lets change your hand to QQ or AA... Finally, lets fast forward to the turn. If you call the turn 3-bet, then raise again on the river, you get 7BB out of the 2+2er caliber opponent who again 3-bets you on the river since he reads you as a smaller two-pair. If you cap the turn, it's very likely you get 5 or 6BB... Something to think about when against a good opponent, capable of hand reading and willing to act on those reads, if you are able to discern from SB's flop action "queen" and turn action "probably ace queen or set". Basically, IMO, calling the turn 3-bet with your set gets you a capped river on every non-spade or king river.

...Any additional thoughts on this?

[Gooch]

would a sensible player raise the river with ATs? if CO gets reraised on the turn and doesnt reraise himself he must not think his Aces ten kicker is no good, so why would he raise the river not unless he put the SB on AK. I say either KJs and surprisingly no one has said AA

[Nate tha' Great]

I think that you want us to say K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Thinking that you can nail any hand with 95% accuracy is probably folly, though. But I wouldn't 3-bet the river.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]

Thinking that you can nail any hand with 95% accuracy is probably folly, though. But I wouldn't 3-bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Range of hands. Range of hands with 95% accuracy. I agree it'll be a rare hand and opponent where you can ever feel close to that accurate in saying their hand is ONE particular hand, unless you go 8 bets with them to find out yes they did have the nuts.

Interesting that the votes for 3-betting versus calling are coming out as varied as they are. I will have to rethink my answer of 3-betting and decide if I'm under-valueing the likelihood a described opponent has KJs or a funky-played set (though these are also countered a bit by times the opponent has funky-played weaker hands that will still pay off a 3rd bet).

[gonores]

I think you have been right all along. I just don't see where the value is in raising the turn with KJs. The likelyhood of SB folding any hand worth 3betting out of position on the flop is really low. If the LAG is even slightly above average, he's going to realize SB is going to a showdown against his aggressive ass, barring a scenario where SB holds KK and another Q comes on the river or something like that.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I basically see ATs or KJs as the only two strong potential for hands, and of those, I think a vast majority of them are ATs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, let's think about all streets here from your opponent's perspective. You 3-bet the flop, which indicates that your most likely holdings are AQ, KQ, QQ, KK and AA. It significantly devalues AK, almost eliminates AJ, especially since he knows that you can't hold those hands in spades.

Now you 3-bet the turn when the ace comes, which eliminates the possiblity of KK and KQ.

Does he really have that difficult a read for AQ/AA/QQ? Yeah, AK is definitely possible, but much less likely given the flop action. At the very least, it's safe to say that KJs is always going to raise the river, while I think that ATs is only sometimes going to raise the river, although it is worth noting that the possibility of Broadway insulates him somewhat from a 3-bet.

One other thing that nobody has mentioned is that there's a good argument that ATs should just call the turn.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have been right all along. I just don't see where the value is in raising the turn with KJs. The likelyhood of SB folding any hand worth 3betting out of position on the flop is really low. If the LAG is even slightly above average, he's going to realize SB is going to a showdown against his aggressive ass, barring a scenario where SB holds KK and another Q comes on the river or something like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're probably right that nobody is folding KK, but how about 88-JJ? I think those hands probably need to 3-bet the flop, and would need to consider a fold very seriously when an ace comes on the turn and they are raised again.