Llabb's Locks (NBA)

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
Considering Utah shot 29% from the field last night, don't you think they're a much better team, relatively speaking, than the 73-62 loss indicated?

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No, not really. The defense will be there, as it's a Jerry Sloan team, but they have no offense. Last night the Jazz started Milt Palacio, Andre Owens, Matt Harpring, Mehmet Okur, and Greg Ostertag. That is worse than many NBA 2nd units. Most NBA fans don't even know who those players are. Harpring's not even supposed to play tonight b/c he shouldn't play back-to-backs yet, so I don't even know who they're going to start.

AK, Boozer, and Giricek all not playing, and McLeod and Deron gimpy. This team is absolutely horrible. The only thing they have going for them is Jerry Sloan and an overreaching Okur, who they're depending on since they have no one else.

That said, Sacramento has been putrid as well, so there's always a chance Utah covers. That's why I should have taken it at -7 last night, and am just playing 1u on the full game, 1u on the 1st half, for the lower spread.

[llabb]

2 more 1st halves, since I like the big favs but don't want to lay so many points, or risk the underdog back door covers. Also taking some fun plays instead of making others 2u. Risky, but still solid imo, and the bankroll can support a few longshots from prior wins.

Det 1H -5
Mia 1H -5

Teaser for +180 Was +11.5, Det -4, Mia -4.5
ML Parlay for +105 Phi, Det, Sac, Mia all 4 ML's
1H Parlay for +585 Det -5, Mia -5, Sac -5 all 1st halves

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Considering Utah shot 29% from the field last night, don't you think they're a much better team, relatively speaking, than the 73-62 loss indicated?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, not really. The defense will be there, as it's a Jerry Sloan team, but they have no offense. Last night the Jazz started Milt Palacio, Andre Owens, Matt Harpring, Mehmet Okur, and Greg Ostertag. That is worse than many NBA 2nd units. Most NBA fans don't even know who those players are. Harpring's not even supposed to play tonight b/c he shouldn't play back-to-backs yet, so I don't even know who they're going to start.

AK, Boozer, and Giricek all not playing, and McLeod and Deron gimpy. This team is absolutely horrible. The only thing they have going for them is Jerry Sloan and an overreaching Okur, who they're depending on since they have no one else.

That said, Sacramento has been putrid as well, so there's always a chance Utah covers. That's why I should have taken it at -7 last night, and am just playing 1u on the full game, 1u on the 1st half, for the lower spread.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand but these men, while 2nd team type players, are professionals and even the worst offensive-minded professionals have a hard time repeating a 29% shooting performance.

[llabb]

Looking like a good call on Boston, Low. I thought it would go the other way, that Det would pound them. They contained Pierce, but somehow let Ricky Davis go off for 22 pts, 77% shooting in the first half? Too much focus on stopping PP, I guess.

Looks like some bad late plays by me today.

[llabb]

Det/Bos 2H U 94

Pistons adjust their D, Ricky Davis does not go 10-for-13 again, and Boston cannot keep shooting 67%...can they?

[llabb]

Horrible, horrible night so far.

SA/Atl 2H U 93
Dal/Den 2H U 99

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
Horrible, horrible night so far.

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I am not trying to be a jerk, but what do you expect when you place so many bets in one night? I don't think it is possible for you to win if you are placing so many bets.

craig

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Horrible, horrible night so far.

[/ QUOTE ]
I am not trying to be a jerk, but what do you expect when you place so many bets in one night? I don't think it is possible for you to win if you are placing so many bets.
craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, no offense taken. I agree that I probably do play too many games, as I've stated myself above.

To answer the question, I expect to have more variance, but to win more overall in the long run. I expect to have horrible nights, and also to have wonderful nights. That is the magic of variance, which increases as I play more games, and as my edge gets smaller.

I could reduce the number of games played, but I still think I have a +EV edge on all the plays I make, sufficient to cover juice and make at least a small profit. If anyone feels otherwise on the plays I am making, I would love to hear other viewpoints on the individual matches being handicapped.

I think this is about how many games I played last year, and I was a net winner last season. How much I'm not sure, which is why I created this thread for this season. As I said in my initial post, I'm curious as to how well I'm doing, and need additional discipline and motivation to keep better track. This thread, and any comments people can give me, will help me do that.

If you do not think I can be a net winner playing this number of games, I am very interested to hear the reasons. Whether you do not think that the games I am taking have enough edge to cover the juice, whether you think my variance will be too high and cripple me, or whether you think I just plain suck as a capper.

For variance analysis, 1 unit for me is 1% of my bankroll, which I think is sufficient to cover downswings (assuming I'm a net winner). If anyone thinks I am not betting an appopriate amount of my bankroll, I would be happy to hear what the appropriate amount should be.

Or if you think that by limiting my # of games played to the top ones in my mind, but betting more per game would increase my overall winnings, I would be interested in that opinion as well. Although this season, my "better" plays have sucked, and my normal plays been pretty good, so that strategy would have hurt me so far.

In any case, this thread is both for discipline and to make me better as a capper, so thanks in advance to any and all for your opinions and advice.

[sage]

Llabb is having a hell of a run, hitting 65% of his posted plays. Where do you get off telling him it's not possible to be a winner when he posts that number of plays? I think you're totally out of line again, which does not seem to be uncommon for you. Kudos on your selection thus far Llabb. Good Luck.

it's not like he was betting on every single line. there were about 100 NBA different possible lines today, he picked like 10? doesn't seem like he was over doing it.

plus, wouldn't it be -EV to pass on a line that you think is +EV?

keep posting. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]